Ministers have been warned that Britain could face a looming gas supply crisis by the end of the decade and should draw up plans to guard against the emerging risk.
The government’s energy advisers urged ministers to address an “emerging risk to gas supply security” that could mean homes and businesses going without gas during a prolonged period of cold weather.
The first gas supply assessment since the National Energy System Operator (Neso) was established last year found that even though the UK’s demand for gas was likely to fall, there could still be potential shortfalls on the coldest days.
Neso quietly published its warning to ministers hours after the government set out its budget statement and economic forecasts, which suggested the decline of the UK’s domestic production of oil and gas was likely to accelerate.
Although the UK’s gas supplies were likely to be enough to cover demand when weather was normal, the report identified “an emerging risk to GB gas supply security” during periods of severely cold weather.
If even one piece of Britain’s ageing gas infrastructure suffers an outage, then the UK’s gas supplies would fall short of demand across all the scenarios it has modelled to 2030, according to the report.
This event would be “unlikely”, it said, but would lead to emergency measures such as shutting off gas supplies to factories and power plants. In extreme scenarios homes could be affected as well. It could take weeks or months to return the country to normal, according to separate government reports.
Britain is heavily reliant on imports of gas via pipelines from Norway and continental Europe, as well as shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the US. About a third of the UK’s gas is from North Sea fields but domestic production fell to 50-year lows last year and are expected to fall further towards the end of the decade.
“Collaboration will be essential to ensuring reliable supplies for consumers,” according to Deborah Petterson, the Neso’s resilience director.
In forecasts where all gas supply and network infrastructure are working properly the risk of a shortfall could be far lower but it would still be evident in a scenario where decarbonisation progress is slower and the UK remains more reliant on gas.
“Gas remains a critical component of Britain’s energy security,” said Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, a director at National Gas, which operates Britain’s gas network.
“Keeping homes warm, powering industry, and supporting electricity generation during periods of peak demand and low renewable output. In considering potential solutions, it is essential to look at both the gas supply landscape and the investment required in network infrastructure.”
