Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.
Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style.
Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let’s dive into Week 7. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.
Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.
Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Game bets
Carolina Panthers-New York Jets total points UNDER 41.5 (-105)
Tough to bet on the Jets offense at this point. That unit ranks in the bottom 10 in scoring, and the pass game is limited due to Justin Fields’ lack of timing and pocket awareness. Plus, the Jets will see a Panthers defense that ranks ninth overall versus the run (94.5 yards per game). On the flip side, Carolina is scoring 22.0 PPG (19th). Take the under. — Bowen
Miami Dolphins-Cleveland Browns to go UNDER 36.5 (-110)
With the weather calling for wind gusts of up to 60 mile per hour in Cleveland on Sunday, let’s take the under in this one. Remember, starting quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Dillon Gabriel are both timing and rhythm throwers who lack the arm strength to drive the ball through the wind. That makes the passing game for Sunday unpredictable — at best. The run game leads the call sheet here, and both teams already rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring. — Bowen
Editor’s Picks
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Two-team, six-point teaser (-110): Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (+5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+0.5)
Let’s tease the Chargers up to +5 at home versus the Colts. Now, I really like what Indy can do on offense with Daniel Jones. He’s a ball distributor and manages a system that features a high-level run game with Jonathan Taylor. But I’ll take the Chargers (with the points), as Justin Herbert can target a Colts secondary that may get back Kenny Moore II (Achilles).
On the other end, Baker Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, and he might get Mike Evans back for the Monday night game in Detroit. That’s critical with Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) and Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) both doubtful for this one. However, in a game that has the make-up of a shootout, I’ll take Detroit’s explosive-play offense, and we get to tease the spread down to a half a point. That’s a winner. — Bowen
Two-team, six-point teaser (-139): New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-1.5), Houston Texans (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks
I like Denver with Vance Joseph’s defense versus rookie Jaxson Dart. But I like it even more taking the spread down to -1.5 for the Broncos at home. Bo Nix hasn’t played his best football, and the Giants’ edge rushers can be disruptive. Low-scoring game here, but Denver covers.
On the other side, we can move the line up to +9.5 for the Texans, and I feel good about that when looking at DeMeco Ryans’ defense. This Texans unit is giving up only 12.2 points per game (lowest in the league), and they rank in the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game. Limiting Seahawks’ wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a must. We know that. But the Texans also have the personnel to create pocket disruption versus quarterback Sam Darnold. And offensively, Texans wide receiver Nico Collins can create matchups against a Seahawks defense allowing 235.5 passing yards per game (24th). Take the Texans to cover. — Bowen
Seth Walder’s defensive props
1:02
Why fantasy managers should consider the Panthers’ defense in Week 7
Tristan H. Cockcroft makes the case for fantasy managers to consider adding the Panthers’ defense in a matchup vs. the Jets.
Jaelan Phillips, OLB, Miami Dolphins, OVER 0.5 sacks (+225)
Seth Walder 2025 Best Bets record
CategoryRecordUnitsSacks27-19-5+21.0Tackles27-10+15.2Receptions7-1+6.7Alternate Receiving Yards1-10-1-8.8QB Interceptions4-1+3.7Pass Attempts3-1+1.8Total69-42-6+39.5
Phillips has only one sack, but that’s selling short his performance in 2025 thus far. The Dolphins edge rusher’s 23% pass rush win rate ranks seventh among all players, and his 14% pass pressure rate ranks ninth. Those are really strong signs, and to get +225 for any edge rusher with those kind of underlying numbers is pretty outstanding, but especially so when Miami is only a 2.5-point underdog against Cleveland. One factor I am concerned about here is the weather. If there is heavy wind and/or rain, that could limit how often the Browns will want to pass. If that’s the case, that will limit the sack opportunities. That might push me off the bet if I were closer to the number, but I show such a large edge here (my model makes the fair price, not knowing the weather report, at +130) that I’ll still happily roll with this over.
Odafe Oweh, OLB, Los Angeles Chargers, OVER 0.5 sacks (+300)
We hit on Oweh’s over last week and I’m running it back in Week 7. Oweh played 48% of the defensive snaps and was in on 77% of the clear pass-rushing down-and-distance plays (both numbers slightly higher than what he did in Baltimore). Khalil Mack is returning from injury this week, so that does increase the competition for snaps, but the fact that it’s Mack’s first game, one has to imagine they won’t have him play a full workload right away. Oweh is probably the team’s second-best pass-rusher after Mack, which makes me still feel good about the over at this favorable price. Oweh recorded his first sack of the season last week, but his 21% pass-rush win rate at edge ranks 11th at the position. Daniel Jones has been excellent at sack avoidance this season, with a 2.6% sack rate, but taking sacks is something he struggled with earlier in his career. My model prices this over at +145.
Other sack bets to consider:
Tyler Nubin, S, New York Giants, UNDER 6.5 tackles + assists (-110)
A year ago as a rookie, Nubin had fantastic tackle numbers, with a 13% tackle rate that ranked fifth among all safeties with at least 250 snaps. But in 2025, that number has dropped to 8%. Looking at his alignments from last year to this there has only been a very minor shift — his starting depth is only half a yard farther away from the line of scrimmage in 2025 — but after six weeks my model is buying what Nubin’s numbers are selling: that, for whatever reason, he isn’t quite the tackling force now he was a year ago.
Bobby Okereke, LB, Giants, OVER 7.5 tackles + assists (-110)
Clearly I’m hoping a tackle or two the bookmakers feel is heading Nubin’s way will go to Okereke instead. The thesis here is simple: Okereke is recording a tackle on 23% of opponent running plays (a high rate in general and 11th-most among linebackers with at least 125 defensive snaps) and the Giants are 7.5-point underdogs to the Broncos. The most likely scenario here is Denver gets out to a lead and runs the ball… ideally straight into Okereke. Considering he’s an every-down linebacker with game script working in his favor, 7.5 is a very reasonable number to cover.
Other tackle bets to consider:
Offensive player props
0:49
Yates: Skattebo is a top-15 fantasy RB for Week 7
Field Yates explains why Cam Skattebo is solid starting RB option as the Giants take on the Broncos in Week 7.
Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (-120)
Matt Bowen 2025 Best Bets record
CategoryRecordUnitsSpread3-1+1.7Game totals2-2-0.3Team total2-0+1.8Parlay0-1-1.0Teaser2-0+1.8Passing props3-0+3.2Receiving props4-5-1.4Rushing props2-0+1.8Rushing + receiving props0-1-1.0Anytime TD3-0+4.7Total21-10+11.4
Yes, Lawrence has had 40-plus pass attempts in half his games this season, but we have to contextualize those attempts with the down, distance and game situation. When we do, we find that the Jaguars are a run-leaning team with a negative-8% pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. On top of that, the Rams defense has been inducing opponents to run more than they usually do. Teams have recorded a negative-8% pass rate over expectation against Los Angeles but negative-2% in all other games. Together, those two factors push my model way under here. — Walder
Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 21.5 completions (-120)
Lawerence is averaging 21.5 completions on the season, so the number is right. But these international games have been rough to watch. Bad football there. So, I’ll take the under for Lawrence in London versus a Los Angeles Rams defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 52.3 this season (seventh lowest). — Bowen
Sam Darnold to go UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-110)
My model likes this bet, and even with just a glance, this looks like a favorable number. Darnold has thrown three picks this year, putting him at a 1.8% interception rate that is roughly league average among starters, but he also hasn’t had any potential interceptions dropped, so my model sees him slightly more favorably than the 1.8% rate would suggest. More important, though, is that Seattle is favored! As scary as the Houston pass rush is, the fact that the Seahawks are solid 3.5-point favorites means we can expect fewer pass attempts for Darnold due to game script and fewer risks if he is playing from the lead. I price this under at -137. — Walder
Cam Skattebo to go UNDER 2.5 receptions (+105)
Running backs catch passes against zone coverage at almost double the rate they do against man coverage (an incredible split!). We’ve been using this fact — and my belief that it is not fully baked into the betting market — to mostly bet reception overs against the Dallas Cowboys, who are playing almost historic levels of zone coverage (82% of the time). The flip side of the coin works, too — running back reception unders against man-heavy teams. And there is no team that plays more man coverage than the Denver Broncos. Their 65% man coverage rate isn’t a historical anomaly, but it is the highest in the league by a healthy margin. — Walder
Bo Nix to go OVER 19.5 rushing yards (-120)
As I said above, the Giants have the edge rushers to heat up the pocket versus Nix, and I think that forces him to move/play off-schedule as a runner. Nix has rushed for 20 or more yards in four of his last five games. He hits the over again in this one, using his dual-threat ability on scramble attempts. — Bowen
Saquon Barkley to go OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)
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Barkley’s numbers have been down this year, as he is averaging only 54.2 yards rushing per game. But if Philly wants to create offensive answers and establish more tempo, it starts with the O-Line and the run game. That’s Eagles football. Take Barkley to hit the over against a Minnesota run defense that is allowing 132.2 rush yards per game (24th). — Bowen
Josh Jacobs to go OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)
Jacobs has rushed for 80 or more yards in three of his last four games and is averaging 19.6 carries per game on the season. We have to remember that the run game is a foundational piece on Matt LaFleur’s offense, so look for another volume day for Jacobs versus Arizona in Week 7. — Bowen
(Ed. note: Jacobs has been dealing with an illness and a calf injury this week and was a late add to the Packers’ injury report. He still may play, but is currently considered to be a “game-time decision.”)
J.K. Dobbins to go OVER 61.5 yards rushing (-110)
Dobbins has topped 62 yards rushing in five of six games this season, and he’s averaging 15.2 carries a game. With steady volume, let’s take Dobbins to hit the over versus a Giants defense that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry. — Bowen
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to go OVER 1.5 receptions (-190)
Running back overs against Dallas have yet to fail this season. That’s normally the kind of trend I would ignore, except that it’s perfectly aligned with what I’ve written almost every week in this space: that running backs catch passes on 15% of pass plays against zone compared 8% against zone, and that the Cowboys are playing an outrageous amount of zone coverage. In fact, Dallas’ 82% zone rate is the highest of any team through six weeks as far back as our coverage data goes (to 2017).
Travis Kelce to go OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)
Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is back for suspension for the Sunday matchup versus the Raiders, but I don’t think that erases Kelce’s impact on quicks and middle-of-the-field throws. Kelce has topped 42 yards receiving in five of six games played, and he gets a Raiders defense giving up an average of 45.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Kelce stays busy in this one. — Bowen
Tory Horton to record 50+ receiving yards (+450)
Horton absolutely fits the profile of the type of player my alternate receiving yards model typically targets (which, granted, has not exactly resulted in much success this year!). He’s a deep threat, running deep fades and go routes 21% of the time (third-highest among wide receivers with at least 80 receiving yards this year), along with a 53% vertical route rate overall (fourth-highest). We seek these types of players for these types of bets because we’re not concerned with the median outcome – go routes are inefficient on average, for example – but rather upside. And deep routes provide plenty of upside. Plus, Horton’s efficiency has been pretty solid, too, with 2.2 yards per route run vs. man coverage – an early indication of skill for the fifth-round rookie. — Walder
Zach Ertz to score Anytime TD (+200)
Ertz has caught a touchdown pass in three of six games played this season, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will scheme for his tight end in the low red zone area of the field. Lot of juice on this bet, and it fits versus a Dallas defense that has given up a league-high 15 touchdown passes. — Bowen
