1. How will the decision be met within the Labour party?
The Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 were met with horror across the British political spectrum. Yet soon after, concern began to mount around the scale of Israel’s response. As the death toll rose, and the situation on the ground in Gaza worsened, internal pressure on Starmer increased.
The government had disappointed many on its own side by saying recognition would happen only as part of a negotiated peace deal. By July this year, more than 100 Labour MPs had signed a cross-party letter, led by the Rotherham MP Sarah Champion, calling for the government to formally acknowledge Palestine immediately.
As global outcry grew, the Guardian revealed that cabinet ministers were also privately urging the prime minister to act. They included his then deputy, Angela Rayner, and the now foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper. The health secretary, Wes Streeting, told MPs he wanted recognition “while there’s still a state of Palestine left to recognise”.
Starmer’s announcement will be met with widespread relief inside the Labour party. Recognition of a Palestinian state has long been a Labour manifesto promise. There is a widely held view that while largely symbolic, it is important to do. That said, there are more than a handful of Labour MPs on the right of the party who will be concerned that it could damage relations with key strategic allies, notably the US, without changing anything on the ground in Gaza.
But as well as the moral imperative to act, the government also had a political one. Labour lost four seats at last year’s general election to pro-Palestinian candidates amid dissatisfaction over the party’s stance on Gaza – and the issue was cited as one of the main reasons why voters were abandoning the party for the Greens and leftwing independents.
2. Will it be enough for the left?
Probably not. While recognition was considered essential by many Labour MPs, it was also seen as just one step. Both within the party and without, there are demands for the government to go even further – on sanctions, arms, trade and war crimes.
Government advisers are defensive, citing what the UK has already done to hold Israel to account since Labour came to power. They point to the UK restoring funding to the UN agency Unrwa, sanctioning far-right Israeli ministers and those who committed settler violence, breaking off trade negotiations with Israel, backing the legitimacy of the international criminal court, restricting arms licences to Israel (though not preventing them entirely) and stepping up humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Starmer’s failure to – publicly at least – condemn Israel’s latest ground offensive while standing alongside Donald Trump at Chequers left many wondering whether he had even privately urged the US president to use his power over the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to bring an end to the conflict, or to put his full political might behind ceasefire talks.
Political movements to the left of Labour welcomed Palestinian self-determination, but want the government to do more.
Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader who is now forming his own leftwing political movement, said: “Next, the UK should recognise the genocide in Gaza, end its complicity in crimes against humanity, and stop arming Israel.”
The new Green party leader, Zack Polanski, said on X: “There won’t be a Palestinian state left if government’s continue enabling Israel’s unfolding genocide. Labour can’t credibly support Palestinian statehood whilst also continuing to arm Israel.”
3. What about the wider UK?
Thousands of people across the UK have taken part in pro-Palestine marches since the start of the conflict, calling for recognition and an immediate ceasefire – suggesting there is widespread unease around the country over the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Gaza. In the social media age, videos of the horrors on the ground have circulated widely.
The marches have taken on an added complexity since the government proscribed Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation despite concerns that the move could risk criminalising legitimate protest.
Starmer’s decision to formally acknowledge Palestine will be a popular one. Pollsters YouGov found that public support for the move continued to significantly outweigh opposition, with 44% backing it, while only 18% disagreed – with 37% unsure. The same polling found that 38% sympathised more with the Palestinian side, 12% with Israel, 17% with both sides equally – and 32% didn’t know.
Labour insiders hope this could further solidify Starmer’s reputation for performing well on the international stage – despite the high stakes involved – although the domestic picture is far bleaker for the prime minister.
