The majority of children will be overweight or obese in nine areas of England by 2035, according to “deeply concerning” projections showing child obesity rates are set to worsen across 90% of the country.
More than a third of primary school children (36%) are already overweight or obese, figures from the government’s national child measurement programme show.
Modelling by the Royal Society for Public Health (RSPH), seen by the Guardian, predicts the proportion of year 6 pupils affected will increase to four in 10 (41%) by 2034-35. In total, rates of overweight or obese children will rise in 136 of 151 local authority areas (90%) in the next decade, the analysis suggests.
And for the first time since records began, rates are projected to top 50% in nine council areas, which means there will be more overweight or obese 10- and 11-year-olds in those areas than not.
They are Blackpool (54%), Knowsley (52%), Sandwell (52%), Barking and Dagenham (52%), Wolverhampton (51%), Walsall (51%), Newham (51%), Luton (50%) and Nottingham (50%).
Obesity map
In an interview with the Guardian, William Roberts, the chief executive of the RSPH, said the causes of the crisis were “wide-ranging” but junk food and low levels of activity were “major factors”.
“Obesity in childhood leads to several complex health problems that can last a lifetime,” he said. “These include diabetes, high blood pressure, certain types of cancer and poor mental health. Making it easier for children to move around and eat healthily is a key part of preventing this.”
Roberts, who previously held senior roles in the NHS, said: “As a nation we’re failing the test on childhood obesity. Our projections show that we are heading in the wrong direction on obesity, with children in some of the most deprived areas set to be worst affected.”
The latest data from the government’s national child measurement programme, which covers mainstream state-maintained schools, shows the percentage of children leaving primary school in England overweight or obese was 36% in 2023-24.
A report by the RSPH, due to be published this week and seen by the Guardian, analysed data from the programme going back to 2009-10, when the figure was 33%. The RSPH projects the rate will increase to 39% by 2029-30 and climb to 41% by 2034-35.
The 18-page report, Playground Rules, calls on the government to encourage greater levels of physical activity in schools, which it argues is key to curbing child obesity.
However, Katharine Jenner, the director of the Obesity Health Alliance, said ministers must also bring in reforms “to fix the commercial food system that is causing soaring rates of childhood ill-health”.
She added: “This is a national issue, but the impact is felt locally – by families, schools and already stretched health services. With over a third of our children, in some areas up to a half, projected to be overweight or living with obesity in the coming years, we’re facing longer NHS waiting lists and a generation of children too unwell to run, play or thrive.”
Blackpool is not only projected to have the highest proportion of overweight or obese children in England by 2034-35, but is also predicted to have the largest rise in rates over the next decade, according to the analysis.
Obesity graph
Chris Webb, the Labour MP for Blackpool South, said: “These projections from the RSPH are deeply concerning – but they don’t have to be our future. With the right action and investment, we can turn the tide on child obesity and build a healthier Blackpool.”
Webb said the country’s “broken food system” was to blame. Local initiatives like Grow Blackpool, a food growing project in the town’s largest housing estate, Grange Park, could help, he said.
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The project enables people to access healthy, cheap food with a local, sustainable food system that tackles both obesity and poverty, Webb said.
“The link between poverty and poor health is undeniable, so this government’s work to address deep-rooted deprivation is vital,” he added.
However, Cathy Cliff, the campaigns coordinator of the Soil Association, said child obesity rates were increasing because successive governments had failed to regulate ultra-processed food (UPF) companies.
In May, a Guardian investigation revealed how Rishi Sunak’s government dropped legal guidance urging retailers to offer deals on healthy food after a secret lobbying campaign by UPF firms.
Five days later, the Guardian reported how Keir Starmer’s government was delaying the launch of a ban on junk food adverts targeting children until 2026, sparking outrage among health campaigners.
“The UK government must use the upcoming food strategy to regulate and tax the unhealthiest foods and make it genuinely easy for everyone to enjoy a minimally processed diet,” said Cliff.
David Fothergill, the chair of the community wellbeing board of the Local Government Association, which represents local authorities, said the RSPH projections were “stark” and highlighted a “ticking health timebomb”.
“To effectively tackle obesity, councils need funding to provide targeted support to those who need it the most,” he said. “Money raised from the soft drinks industry levy should also be reinvested in other council-run programmes, including healthy eating programmes and active play and physical exercise schemes.”
The government said it was determined to give every child the best start in life. “That is why we are acting quickly with experts across the sector to revise the school food standards, so every school is supported with the latest nutrition guidance,” a spokesperson added. “We are also considering how best to build physical activity into the lives of children and adults as part of our mission to boost the nation’s health.”
