Turns out Triple-A was just a layover for Chase Burns. The second overall pick in last year’s draft is on his way to the majors, scheduled to start Tuesday against the Yankees, according to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.
It’s a quick climb for the 22-year-old, who only made his professional debut this April and appeared in just two Triple-A games prior to this promotion. While his time in the minors was brief, his dominance there was so thorough that he quickly emerged as the consensus top pitching prospect in baseball. Here’s how his numbers looked in his 13 starts between three stops:
His latest outing for Triple-A Louisville may have been the most impressive. In it, he allowed one run on three hits with no walks and seven strikeouts over seven innings. He registered 17 swinging strikes, including four on the fastball, which averaged 98.5 mph and peaked at 100.5, and 12 on the slider, which he threw 35 percent of the time.
While those aren’t his only two pitches, they’re his most notable pitches, with both rating near the top of the scales in effectiveness. Baseball America scored both a 70 on the 20-80 scale prior to the season. MLB Pipeline gave the fastball a 65 but was right in line with Baseball America on the slider. If anything, they’d score even higher now that we’ve seen them in action.
Helping Burns’ cause is how good his control has been, going beyond just the 1.8 BB/9. His 68.1 percent strike rate is bettered by only five major-league qualifiers. His 17.7 percent swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, is bettered by — let’s see — no one.
The Reds are obviously sold, pivoting to Burns as their replacement for Wade Miley (flexor strain) after originally saying that they’d turn to Chase Petty. Petty was instead called up to pitch out of the bullpen Saturday. Miley is no great shakes, of course, and seeing as Nick Martinez was also used out of the bullpen Saturday, it seems like the Reds may be souring on him as a starter as well.
Which is to say that Tuesday’s start is almost certainly more than a one-and-done for Burns. Particularly with the Reds on the fringes of the playoff race with an upstart roster and legendary manager, he’s likely here for the long haul, provided he performs. And performance is among the least of my concerns, actually.
The too-easy (and likely too-fanciful) comparison is Paul Skenes, who was drafted first overall only a year before Burns was drafted second overall and likewise didn’t spend even a year in the minors. But Burns doesn’t have to be that good to be of much good in Fantasy. If there’s one thing every Fantasy team could use one more of, it’s a starting pitcher, whether for matchup or attrition reasons, and as long he sticks around, I’m confident Burns will be more for you than just a streamer or substitute.
How confident? Enough that I’m ranking him 41st right out of the gate, ahead of notables like Ryan Pepiot, Merrill Kelly, Drew Rasmussen and his new teammate Nick Lodolo. Such a ranking makes Burns obviously must-roster and verging on must-start.
I’d probably omit that second “must” for his first turn against the Yankees, just out of an abundance of caution, but it wouldn’t scare me to use him either.
