Oil prices fell and stock markets rose as Donald Trump said the war with Iran would end and the strait of Hormuz would be “open to all” if Tehran struck a deal with Washington.
The US president posted on social media: “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran.”
However, he added that if Iran did not strike a deal, “the bombing starts” and “it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before”.
It came after the president said he would briefly pause his “Project Freedom” operation escorting ships through the strait, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies but has been blockaded by Iran since late February, triggering a global energy crisis.
Trump said he was stopping the operation for “a short period” so he could finalise a deal with Tehran but added that his blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place.
Graph of oil prices from February to May
According to state media, the Revolutionary Guards’ Navy said on Wednesday that safe transit through the strait would be ensured with US threats coming to an end and new procedures in place. It was Iran’s first reaction to the US pausing operations intended to help stranded ships pass through the strait.
Initially, the news sent Brent crude oil – which had risen as much as 6% earlier this week after the latest attacks in the Middle East – tumbling 11% to as low as $97 (£71) a barrel. It was the first time it has fallen below $100 since 22 April.
Wholesale gas prices also fell – the British June contract fell 6.3% to 107.8p a therm – while airline stocks rose on improved prospective for international travel.
The crude price had been falling on Wednesday morning, and accelerated after a report by the Axios news site that the White House believed it was getting close to agreeing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war with Iran. It said the two sides were ready to set a framework for more detailed nuclear talks, citing four sources including two US officials.
However, oil pared its losses later in the day, trading down 7.3% at $101.83 a barrel as Iran said it was an “American wishlist [and] not a reality”.
The Guards’ statement on the strait did not specify what the new procedures entailed and thanked shipowners and captains for respecting Iranian regulations when moving through the waterway.
The oil price had hit $126 a barrel last week, its highest level since 2022, after Trump said the US blockade of Iranian ports could last for months and peace talks remained stalled.
European stock markets rallied on Wednesday. The UK’s FTSE 100 index rose 2%, and France’s Cac 40 was up 3% and Germany’s Dax rose by 2.1%.
MSCI’s All-Country World Index rose 1.6% to a new record alongside similar milestones for its emerging markets benchmark and its broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan, which rose by 2.5%.
The rally was led by a 6.6% surge in South Korea’s Kospi, which cleared the 7,000 mark for the first time. As the Seoul market reopened after a holiday, Samsung Electronics increased by 14.8%, topping a $1tn market value, as it rode the boom in AI stocks.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 – which hit a new record on Tuesday – rose nearly 1.5%.
On the bond market, UK long-term gilt yields decreased slightly after reaching their highest level since 1998 on Tuesday. The yield on 30-year gilts – which is the effective interest rate on the UK government’s long-term borrowing – reduced by about 9 basis points to 5.63%.
Gold, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven asset, rose by 3% to $4,695 an ounce.
Trump’s latest comments came as the French shipping group CMA CGM said one of its ships, the San Antonio, had been the target of an attack while crossing the strait of Hormuz.
The attack, which occurred on Tuesday, had injured crew members and damaged the vessel, the company said, adding it was “closely monitoring the situation and remains fully mobilised alongside the crew”.
The chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, Susannah Streeter, said: “A dam of tension has eased with relief flooding into financial markets, amid hopes that hostilities will cease in the Middle East, with the Trump administration making conciliatory moves.
“Relief is starting to seep into the bond markets, with UK gilt yields easing off amid hopes that inflation might not head quite as high if a longer-term resolution can be negotiated.”
