The bombing of a primary school in Minab on 28 February killed scores of people, most of them seven- to 12-year-old girls. The strike is the worst mass killing of the US and Israel’s war on Iran so far – and has been described by Unesco as a “grave violation” of international law.
On Saturday, the US president, Donald Trump, declared that Iran was responsible for the school bombing. “In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran … they’re very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.”
The president presented no evidence for his claim. His assertion has not been repeated by spokespeople for the US military, who have said only that they are “investigating” the bombing.
But a growing body of evidence indicates that the strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh primary school was carried out by the US. Here is what we know – and why it points to the US being responsible.
The school’s location
The Shajareh Tayyebeh school was adjacent to a cluster of buildings that form the local Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval barracks and support buildings. The Guardian cross-referenced verified videos from the site of the bombing with satellite imagery to confirm the location of the primary school.
Historic satellite imagery shows that while the school’s building was once part of the wider IRGC complex, it has been walled off from the barracks for at least nine years. For years, it has had clear visual indications that it is an educational facility, including colourful murals on the walls and small sports playing fields – both visible in some satellite imagery.
There is no indication that the school was a military-use building at the time of the strike. Its location, however, provides a plausible reason why the US or Israel may have selected targets in that area.
An annotated satellite view of the area in which the school was located.
A number of videos of the bombed school, which have been verified by the Guardian, were shared on Iranian social media in the immediate aftermath of the explosion. At least four show what is clearly the same site from different angles and approaches, with shared motifs such as the school’s distinctive, colourful murals.
One of those videos shows the rubble of the destroyed school and pans to show thick smoke rising over the fence – from the direction of the IRGC base. The video was one of the first indications that the bomb that hit the school was one of a series of strikes that also targeted the IRGC complex next to it.
Panic as smoke rises after strike on girls’ elementary school in Minab, southern Iran
Satellite imagery of the strikes
On 4 March, the first satellite images were released showing the aftermath of the strikes. They show the destroyed school building and four other destroyed buildings in its immediate vicinity, all within the walls of the IRGC complex.
A satellite image of Shajareh Tayyebeh primary school after it was hit.An aerial view of the school and surrounding areas taken on 4 March with bombed sites marked
The Tomahawk video
On 8 March, Iranian state media Mehr news agency released a video of a missile hitting a location in Minab. The video was geolocated by the investigative collective Bellingcat. Geolocation is the process of cross-referencing physical features shown in an image or video (such as buildings, billboards, signage or mountains) with verified images of a site, such as satellite images, to confirm where it was captured.
Bellingcat was able to match buildings, water towers, trees and roads from the video with satellite images of the Minab site, to locate what angle it was filmed from and where the missile landed. It determined that the missile had struck the IRGC compound next to the school.
The missile shown in the video has been identified by munitions experts as a Tomahawk missile.
“Given the belligerents, that indicates it is a US strike, as Israel is not known to possess Tomahawk missiles,” said NR Jenzen-Jones, the director of Armament Research Services, an intelligence consultancy that provides munitions analysis to governments and NGOs. The US is the only country involved in the Iran war to have this weapon.
He added: “Despite various claims circulating online, the munition in question is clearly not an Iranian Soumar missile: the Soumar has a distinctive external engine located towards the rear, on the underside of the munition.”
A Tomahawk missile hits naval base next to Minab primary school
Missile fragments reportedly from the site
On 10 March, Iranian state media published photographs of what they said was missile debris from the school bombing. The photos show the bomb fragments displayed at the school site, although the Guardian cannot independently verify that they were excavated from that location.
Some labelling is still visible on the fragments, including the logo of Ohio-based engine manufacturer Globe Motors, which is a leading US defence contractor, and weapons manufacturer Ball Aerospace and Technologies. The words “Made in the USA” are clearly legible. According to analysis by the New York Times, the serial numbers and other labelling visible on the remains are consistent with how the Department of Defense and its suppliers label munitions. Munitions expert Trevor Ball identified the fragments as being the remains of a US Tomahawk missile.
An Iranian government handout photograph purporting to show missile fragments recovered from the site. The Guardian has not been able to independently verify the photograph. Photograph: IRIB via Telegram
Where the US was operating during the strikes
While the US has not explicitly admitted to striking the school or adjacent IRGC barracks, it has said it was conducting strikes in the area. In a briefing at the Pentagon led by Pete Hegseth on 4 March, the US military shared a graphic showing where the US and Israel had conducted strikes during Operation Epic Fury.
While Minab is not labelled on that map, one of the points marked as the location of a US/Israeli strike corresponds to where Minab is located. The graphic also marks where “Iranian strikes” had taken place according to the US military – none are marked in the Minab area.
The map is reinforced by broader US/Israeli intelligence briefings, in which officials have said the US focused its initial strikes along Iran’s southern coastline (where Minab is located), while Israel focused its strikes on the west of the country.
A graphic shared by the US military on 4 March showing where they and Israel had conducted strikes. Photograph: Konstantin Toropin/AP
Widely circulated images of a ‘misfire’ debunked
Shortly after the bombing, a number of social media accounts made viral claims similar to those made by the president: that the school had been struck by a misfired Iranian missile. The photographs of the misfire that those accounts present as evidence, however, were taken about 994 miles (1,600km) away from Minab, in the much colder northern city of Zanjan.
The backdrop of the alleged “misfire” photo shows snow-covered mountains, but Minab lies on the far warmer southern coast of Iran; satellite imagery shows no snow-capped mountains in its vicinity. In the foreground of the misfire image, signs for a dentist’s clinic are visible – experts also geolocated that office building to Zanjan. The president has not directly referenced the circulated image, and has provided no further evidence of a misfire.
