Schools in London could lose £45m in funding over the next four years as pupil numbers continue to fall, a report has warned, with secondary schools facing staff and curriculum cuts as budgets dwindle.
Until now, primary schools in the capital have been worst hit by falling birth rates, leading to about 90 school closures or mergers in the past five years. But the crisis is now spreading to secondary schools, which are expected to see steep declines in pupil numbers.
A report by London Councils warns that inner London schools face the sharpest drop. Demand for year 7 places is expected to fall by 7.6% over the next four years, while reception places are forecast to decline by 6.4%.
Schools are funded on a per-pupil basis, so falling numbers mean less funding. The problem is particularly acute in the capital, but is affecting schools across the country, raising fears education standards could be put at risk.
Councillor Ian Edwards, London Councils’ executive member for children and young people, said: “Maintaining high education standards is the absolute priority for London’s boroughs, but falling pupil numbers are putting real pressure on school budgets.
“Boroughs are doing all they can locally to manage this whilst ensuring London’s education estate is protected, so school sites can continue to meet future need – particularly given the capital’s acute housing pressures and ambitious targets for housing growth.
“Without action to reflect London’s circumstances, schools risk having to narrow the curriculum and reduce vital support for pupils.”
The report estimates that the forecast decline in demand for school places equates to £15m in funding cuts for primary school budgets and £30m for secondary schools in the capital.
There are concerns that children with special educational needs and disabilities (Send) could be affected if support staff are cut. Schools may also be forced to reduce GCSE options, enrichment activities and school trips to save money.
“Although pupil numbers are decreasing, the need for additional support continues to rise,” the report said. “Schools are seeing increased demand for mental health and wellbeing support, higher levels of school avoidance and persistent absence, and growing numbers of children with Send.
“At the same time, schools experiencing falling rolls face diminishing budgets to meet these rising needs. Attainment gaps relating to ethnicity, Send and socio-economic disadvantage also persist, placing further strain on schools’ ability to deliver equitable outcomes.”
London Councils’ analysis of school place projections for all 32 London boroughs for the next four years indicates a 2.5% reduction in demand for reception and a 3.8% decline for year 7. A small number of boroughs could buck the trend and are predicting growth.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the school leaders’ union, NAHT, said: “What we need now is an approach to school funding that protects and supports those schools experiencing falling rolls and recognises that trends can change over time.
“Rather than cutting funding, we urge the government to protect it to allow schools to maintain existing staffing levels. This would also help schools to offer smaller classes, deliver more targeted help for pupils who need it, and reduce unsustainable levels of workload for staff.”
Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union, said: “At a time of rising pupil need and record class sizes in both primary and secondary schools, government should embrace the opportunity to cut class sizes and improve education quality.”
The Department for Education has been contacted for comment.
