The Italian “demographic winter” has a number of causes, but rising male biological infertility is not one (A child is born: Italians celebrate village’s first baby in 30 years, 26 December).
A lot of worry about falling sperm counts has been generated by some studies, but a more recent meta‑analysis found, through inclusion of regional controls, an increase in US sperm counts between 1970 and 2018. Sperm counts may be falling in places like the Chinese province of Henan, which has substantial air and water pollution, but there is limited evidence that sperm counts are falling in the developed world.
In 2024, the Pew Research Center asked women and men over 50 who never had children why they hadn’t. Around a third (31%) didn’t want them, but more prolific reasons included “it just never happened” (39%) and “didn’t find the right partner” (33%). Since 1980, the Italian maternity rate has fallen from 77% to 60%, accounting for 77% of the fall in the Italian fertility rate over that period (calculated using a microdemographic framework and Istat fertility data). The demographic winter is primarily driven by a decline in people becoming parents, which is primarily driven by life milestones, including romantic ones, not being met in time.
Peter Foreshaw Brookes
Director, The Centre for Family and Education
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