By its own lofty standards, the ACC has muddled through a string of mediocre seasons. The 18-team league received its lowest number of NCAA bids in more than a decade (four) last season, and it hasn’t been a top-three conference since before 2020.
Unexpected Final Four appearances by North Carolina (2022) and NC State (2024) have cushioned the fall, but the decline was always there. The ACC had eight top-40 teams in 2019 — the year of its last national title, via Virginia — compared to last season’s four.
The mediocrity has been mostly in the middle of the standings, but it might finally be ending. With Duke doing Duke things at the top, the likes of Virginia, NC State, Miami and SMU have emerged as solid bubble teams. A half dozen others, even Cal, are in position to add to the ACC’s bid count.
For the first time in a good while, Selection Sunday should bring very good news to Tobacco Road.
ACC by the numbers
Minimum projected NCAA bids6Maximum projected NCAA bids10Average NCAA bids*5.2 (4th among top-5 conferences)Average NCAA seed*6.86 (3rd among top-5 conferences)NCAA record*42-26 (.618, 1st among top-5 conferences)*Data collected over the previous four NCAA tournaments
The ACC begins conference play on Dec. 30.
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Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights
Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights
Final Four contenders
Duke Blue Devils
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
The Blue Devils are an obvious choice behind Player of the Year contender Cameron Boozer, but UNC with a healthy Seth Trimble and Louisville can also mount a serious challenge in March.
Editor’s Picks
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Likely tournament teams
Virginia Cavaliers
Clemson Tigers
SMU Mustangs
NC State Wolfpack
Miami Hurricanes
Virginia is the “feel good” story here under new coach Ryan Odom. With wins over Northwestern, Texas, Dayton and Maryland, the Cavaliers sit atop the ACC’s resurrected second tier.
Possible tournament teams
Cal Golden Bears
Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The West Coast additions are both ahead of schedule in their second ACC season. This year, they also host Duke and Carolina for the first time in league play, which should make for an interesting road swing for the conference’s traditional powers.
Sleeper team
Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies have a future pro in Greek freshman Neoklis Avdalas and have surrounded him with mostly veteran and productive role players. At 11-2, they’re doing their best to erase the 13-19 nightmare from a season ago.
Long shots
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Syracuse Orange
Just when you think these former stalwarts have turned the corner, they lose home games to the likes of Fort Wayne and Hofstra. Not what you want if your address is anywhere near the bubble.
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Maybe next year…
Pittsburgh Panthers
Florida State Seminoles
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Boston College Eagles
The ACC may be vastly improved, but not enough to lift its bottom four teams into NCAA tournament consideration. New coach Luke Loucks is succeeding a legend (Leonard Hamilton) at Florida State and will need a little more time. And time may be running out at the other three schools, which have nonconference losses to the likes of Quinnipiac, Drake and Central Connecticut.
