While standing on the sideline watching a high school soccer game, my friend, who owned a small and successful construction company, complained that his son – a senior – was starting at a respected local university that fall, which would cost roughly $200,000 over the next four years.
“I could take the same money and set him up in a contracting business,” he said. “It would be a much better investment.”
That was in 2010. The kid did go to that college and graduated four years later with a degree in history. Where do you think he is now? Working in the construction business.
Ask anyone in the construction business and they’ll complain about the lack of skilled workers in their trade. The numbers support these concerns. The Associated General Contractors of America reported this past year that 92% of firms have had a hard time filling positions and 45% delayed at least one project due to labor shortages. A worker shortage model from the Associated Builders and Contractors estimates that the industry must attract 499,000 workers in 2026 to meet demand. The National Association of Homebuilders estimates the number to be as high as 723,000 annually.
Why the shortage? Among the reasons is that younger workers have gravitated away from working with their hands over the past few decades in lieu of office jobs. Older workers are getting older – the National Center for Construction Education and Research estimates that about 41% of the current construction workforce will retire by 2031. And the current administration’s immigration policy has not only dried up the flow of potential overseas workers but have driven many construction workers – even those with proper documentation – underground.
The building of datacenters has surged over the past few years and construction workers on those projects are in such high in demand they’re seeing pay jumps of 25% to 30% compared to their previous jobs – and in some cases, much more. Good for them, but that’s not going to last forever.
What will happen very soon is – as interest rates continue to fall and new tax incentives begin to take hold – a new demand from both homebuyers and businesses looking to build and buy properties will – after more than five years – return and return strong. This is a cyclical industry. Things have been in the trough. But when the recovery happens, the peak will be high. Which means there will be an enormous need for new constructions workers.
For many in the industry facing such labor shortages, that scenario is daunting. I think the opposite.
Thanks to AI, there will be an obliteration of entry-level jobs and the meaningless white-collar work. Where will they go? There will be other opportunities – startups and new jobs we’ve never heard of (20% of today’s jobs didn’t even exist in 2000). But many will gravitate towards the trades – a place where AI can’t replace them.
We’re already seeing this trend develop. Trade school enrollment is up significantly since the pandemic and is expected to increase as much as 7% annually through 2030, a rate significantly higher than other forms of higher education. The ranks of students studying construction trades alone rose 23% over the past year, according to another report. Young people are not stupid. They’re following the money.
