The Los Angeles Rams have their fate in their own hands when it comes to a second straight NFC West title — and the No. 1 seed in the conference. The same can be said of the Seattle Seahawks in regard to the division crown, but their road is much more difficult.
Los Angeles has the same 11-3 record as Seattle but currently occupies first place in the NFC West by virtue of its 21-19 home triumph in the rivals’ first meeting of the season in Week 11. The Rams wrap up the 2025 NFL regular season with matchups against the Atlanta Falcons (5-9) and Arizona Cardinals (3-11), while the Seahawks take on the Carolina Panthers (7-7) and San Francisco 49ers (10-4), meaning it is of the utmost importance that they win their showdown with the Rams at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday Night Football at Lumen Field.
The Rams are coming off their eighth win in nine games, a 41-34 triumph over the Detroit Lions in Week 15. Matthew Stafford added to his MVP resume by throwing a pair of touchdown passes to increase his NFL-leading total to 37 and posting his third 300-yard performance of the season with 368 yards as he ranks second in the league with 3,722.
Kyren Williams also was a big contributor against the Lions, rushing for 78 yards and two touchdowns. The 25-year-old has found the end zone at least once in six of his last seven games, including Los Angeles’ first meeting with Seattle on Nov. 16 when he gained 91 yards on only 12 carries.
The Seahawks also have won eight of their last nine and extended their streak to four straight victories with last week’s 18-16 triumph over the Indianapolis Colts. All of Seattle’s offense against Indianapolis came from Jason Myers, who converted all six of his field-goal attempts, including a 56-yarder with 18 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.
Wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL with 1,541 receiving yards, finished the win with 113 on seven catches for his ninth 100-yard effort of the year. One of those came against the Rams in Week 11, when he hauled in nine passes for 105 yards in that contest. However, Sam Darnold struggled in the matchup as he matched his career high with four interceptions and failed to throw a touchdown pass.
The Rams already have secured a trip to the postseason and would strengthen their chances for both their 16th NFC West title and a first-round bye with a victory on Thursday. In addition to currently owning the tiebreaker against Seattle, Los Angeles is one game ahead of the Chicago Bears in the race for the top spot in the conference, which would mark the fourth time it has accomplished the feat.
A victory would seal up a playoff berth for the Seahawks and put them in the driver’s seat for what would be their 12th overall division title and 10th NFC West crown. It also would give them the inside track to finish with the No. 1 seed for the fourth time in franchise history.
SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team currently believes Los Angeles has the better chance at winning the NFC West. According to the ITL team’s model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, the Rams have a 56% chance to capture the division title as they enter Thursday night’s showdown, and it would increase to nearly 89% with a victory against the Seahawks but would drop to less than 24% with a loss.
The model says the Seahawks’ prospects to win the division are at nearly 31.5% right now and jump to just under 60% with a win over the Rams. However, a loss would give them only a 3% chance to finish atop the NFC West.
CHANCES OF WINNING NFC WEST
TEAM
CURRENT
WITH WEEK 16 WIN
WITH WEEK 16 LOSS
DIFFERENCE
Los Angeles Rams
56.0%
88.7%
23.4%
65.3%
Seattle Seahawks
31.4%
59.8%
3.0%
56.8%
Considering the remaining schedule for both teams, it is imperative for the Seahawks to defeat the Rams for just the second time in their last six meetings both overall and in Seattle. When the clubs met at Lumen Field last season, Smith-Njigba made his second touchdown catch of the game with 51 seconds left in the fourth quarter to help forge a tie before Stafford threw his second TD pass of the contest midway through overtime to give Los Angeles a 26-20 victory.
The Rams have the NFL’s second-leading receiver in Puka Nacua (1,367 yards), although they may be without wideout Davante Adams, who leads the league with 14 touchdown receptions but is battling a hamstring injury. Seattle is a 1.5-point favorite against Los Angeles in the latest odds at DraftKings, and the ITL team’s model is projecting a 23-22 victory for the Seahawks.
