The second edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings was released Tuesday night with undefeated Ohio State remaining No. 1 ahead of Indiana and Texas A&M with the first five teams unchanged from the initial top 25. Less than one month remains until the final College Football Playoff bracket is selected, and there is no telling what upsets may be in store for the top teams in the nation.
The reigning national champion Buckeyes are seeking their seventh playoff appearance in 12 years of the postseason bracket’s existence (2014, 2016, 2019-20, 2022, 2024). OSU (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) is off to a dominant start this season with wins over Texas and Illinois, and it thoroughly took down Purdue on Saturday to keep its resume intact. Its final game against a ranked opponent comes in its regular-season finale against Michigan.
Eight of the 11 teams ranked No. 1 in a season’s initial CFP Rankings ultimately reached the playoff, an effort now made easier with the expanded 12-team field, which is being contested for a second season.
Currently projected to meet Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game is Indiana (10-0, 7-0 SEC), which eked out a 27-24 win at Penn State to remain undefeated. IU’s final two games are against teams with combined records of 5-14 overall, 1-12 in Big Ten play.
Alabama and Georgia round out the top five, which is entirely comprised of Big Ten and SEC teams for the second straight week.
The CFP Selection Committee’s key move this week was raising Texas Tech two spots past Ole Miss and Oregon after the Red Raiders’ 29-7 win over BYU. Miami (FL), despite being ranked No. 15, takes the 11th bid as the highest-rated team from the ACC.
South Florida claims the last of the 12 playoff spots as the highest-ranked Group of Five team in Tuesday’s release at No. 24. With the 12-team playoff model granting automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions, USF is presently projected to win the American and grab the final spot in the field. Should a Group of Five team not make the final rankings, the CFP Selection Committee would choose which champion deserved the last bid.
College Football Playoff Rankings, Nov. 11
* First-round bye | ~ First-round host |Â ^ Highest-ranked Group of Five team
- Ohio State (9-0) *
- Indiana (10-0) *
- Texas A&M (9-0) *
- Alabama (8-1) *
- Georgia (8-1) ~
- Texas Tech (9-1) ~
- Ole Miss (9-1) ~
- Oregon (8-1) ~
- Notre Dame (7-2)
- Texas (7-2)
- Oklahoma (7-2)
- BYU (8-1)
- Utah (7-2)
- Vanderbilt (8-2)
- Miami (FL) (7-2) | No. 11 seed
- Georgia Tech (8-1)
- USC (7-2)
- Michigan (7-2)
- Virginia (8-2)
- Louisville (7-2)
- Iowa (6-3)
- Pittsburgh (7-2)
- Tennessee (6-3)
- South Florida (7-2) ^ | No. 12 seed
- Cincinnati (7-2)
SEC’s drive for five bids
Nobody outside of the SEC wants to hear this, but this end-of-season stretch is coming up roses for a conference that has long been an advocate for further expansion. There’s a chance at least five teams could finish with 10 wins — and as many as seven — if 11th-ranked Oklahoma beats Alabama and No. 10 Texas upends Georgia this weekend. That would result in a possible squeeze scenario for various at-large options from other conferences — and also Notre Dame — if the committee hammers home its record strength and strength-of-schedule components. What’s more likely to happen is Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia each securing spots with wins this weekend, which would leave Vanderbilt as the only SEC team left with a 10-win opportunity. Then, we could see a situation unfold in which the SEC’s fifth entry — and fourth at-large — comes down to the Commodores or a nine-win Texas if the Longhorns topple Texas A&M in two weeks. We’re considering Oklahoma’s trip to Tuscaloosa as a playoff elimination game for the Sooners, but Texas could slip up at Georgia and still have a path.
Slotted No. 5 in the committee’s second rankings, Georgia is still capable of getting a top four seed and opening-round bye by winning out, but the Bulldogs will need help. The clearest trek is this: If Oklahoma beats Alabama this weekend and the Crimson Tide take care of business against Auburn during the regular-season finale, Alabama gets to the SEC Championship Game. Then, a loss to possible unbeaten Texas A&M puts the fourth-ranked Crimson Tide at 10-3 overall on selection day with Georgia right behind. Would the committee swap Alabama for the Bulldogs receiving the last first-round bye despite the Crimson Tide’s head-to-head in September win due to overall record? It’s possible. Georgia would be riding an eight-game winning streak into the postseason with final month victories over nationally ranked Texas and Georgia Tech.
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High stakes for Oregon, USC
The Ducks and Trojans won’t meet until Nov. 15, but that showdown is arguably the most important game left in the Big Ten’s playoff picture as long as eighth-ranked Oregon beats Minnesota and No. 17 USC handles Iowa this weekend. By winning out, Lincoln Riley’s team would rise in the rankings and get one of the final at-large spots given their previous victory over a possible 10-win Michigan — should the now 18th-ranked Wolverines stun Ohio State for a fifth consecutive season — and what would be quality wins over the Hawkeyes and Ducks.Â
We’ve projected the Big Ten to be a three-bid conference throughout the season and it looks like that third and final entry will come down to the Ducks and Trojans unless hell breaks loose in Week 12 prior to the two teams’ anticipated showdown. Pay attention to rivalry games that come after USC-Oregon, too. The Trojans close with UCLA, while the Ducks go to Washington. Big Ten fans may want to shield their eyes from the final bracket reveal should the Bruins and Huskies upset those two ranked teams. In short, a 9-3 finish is not going to be good enough to get in for Oregon or USC.Â
Route for *two* Big 12 teams
Despite Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire’s rally cry for the Big 12’s multi-bid needs following his team’s 29-7 win over the Cougars last weekend, the committee spoke loud and clear with how it power ranks the conference against the SEC and Big Ten. Moving BYU back from No. 7 to No. 12 behind Texas and Oklahoma shows the league has major work to do if it expects two entries in the bracket. Best-case scenario for the Cougars is winning their next three games against TCU, Cincinnati and UCF to reach the Big 12 Championship. There, BYU would have a rematch opportunity against the Red Raiders and would make the playoff with a win.Â
The committee would have to decide what to do with an 11-2 Texas Tech thereafter. Last season, SMU was designated as the last team in after finishing 11-1 before losing to Clemson in the ACC title game, giving that conference two bids. While this committee is different and you can’t really judge year over year, history could repeat itself and the Big 12 would have two entries if the widely accepted narrative that conference championship doesn’t widely skew seeding rings true.
Group of Five scenarios
USF debuted in the rankings at No. 24, the first Group of Five to receive any designation this season from the committee. And with rules regarding the Group of Five’s highest-ranked conference receiving one of five auto-bids, the Bulls are in good shape by winning out. Our updated projection this week prior to the committee’s second reveal was North Texas getting the Group of Five bid under the notion the Mean Green win out and get to the American Championship Game — and then win a rematch with USF after losing to the Bulls, 63-36, earlier this season.Â
For that to come to fruition, North Texas needs Tulane to lose to FAU, Temple or Charlotte over the final three weeks. We’re going to take a mulligan there and as of right now, the frontrunner is now USF from the Group of Five. JMU, Tulane and North Texas are also in the mix, with Navy and Memphis on the fringe. San Diego State’s blowout loss at Hawaii in Week 11 means this season’s projected Mountain West champion is out of the picture.
