The ACC is already playing from behind and it’s only the first ranking of the season. With no teams ranked in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s initial top 12 on Tuesday night, the lone ACC team in the bracket if it were released today would be No. 14 Virginia. The Cavaliers would earn a spot as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.
As for No. 17 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Miami? Not even a head-to-head win against the No. 10-ranked Irish was enough to keep the Canes within playoff range after their loss at SMU.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s first ranking on Tuesday night.
CFP Virginia
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are currently in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing early. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it’s favored in each of its remaining games by at least 72%, and has the seventh-best chance in the country (55.4%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma could also help them in the committee meeting room. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — they would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at No. 25 Tennessee, and have a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for it. That could change on Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
Editor’s Picks
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (18%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, though, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in the Big Ten standings and in the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they’re going to need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to them in the Big 12 championship game, they would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. They would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
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First team out: Utah. The No. 13 Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.2%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but they might have a hard time earning an at-large bid without being able to beat at least one of the best teams in their league. If there is some movement above them, though, Utah could quickly earn a promotion given their place on the bubble after the first ranking.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. They’re included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. The unranked Bearcats only have one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season-opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss while the Yellow Jackets lost by double digits. Virginia also has the head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent.. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
Allstate Playoff Predictor
How will this season’s top games affect the College Football Playoff chase? What are the current odds for the top four? The Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week’s games.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4 but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above it lose and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly on Tuesday, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and these teams are all still technically still in contention to play for the ACC title. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (66.6%), followed by Georgia Tech (41.3%) and Louisville (33.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami only has a 2.7% chance to reach the championship game – also behind Duke and SMU.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The selection committee’s decision to render the head-to-head loss to Miami moot was critical for both teams. The group rewarded Notre Dame for its eye test and recent surge during a six-game winning streak. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (64.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers are playing well, have won five straight, and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. Notre Dame’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Memphis wasn’t ranked in the committee’s top 25, but the group continues to rank teams until a Group of 5 team is included and then publicizes which one it is without revealing the full ranking and who might have been ahead. The Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: USF, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider USF’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the first committee ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oregon/No. 8 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
