Ghosts and goblins might not be the only scary things popping up this Halloween. Prices for the holiday’s most popular candy treats are rising, spooked by Donald Trump’s tariffs and climate change.
Candy prices are estimated to increase by 10.8% this year, according to new analysis from progressive groups the Century Foundation and the Groundwork Collaborative, with some popular chocolate-based treats seeing price upticks of at least 20%. The price increases could mean popular candy like Tootsie Rolls and Hershey’s chocolate and variety packs are a few dollars more expensive than just a year ago.
Chocolate candies are especially at risk of higher prices because of a years-long cocoa shortage that has caused the price of cocoa to triple over the last few years. Climate-related rain and damage to cocoa crops in west Africa – the biggest exporter of cocoa beans – have caused cocoa to peak at more than $12,000 per ton in 2024. Though prices have since gone down to about $6,000 per ton, they are still much higher than prices seen in 2020, when cocoa was $2,300 per ton.
Bar graph showing percentage increases in more than 15 cocoa and candy treatsl
“Our food system is really global,” said Alex Villacis, a food economist at the Ohio State University. “Something that is happening in west Africa will ultimately have an impact on your front porch this Halloween season.”
The rising price of cocoa is only one part of the story on candy prices. Donald Trump has placed tariffs on the biggest exporters of chocolate to the US. Imports from the Ivory Coast, the largest producer of cocoa, are taxed with a 21% tariff. Ecuador, the second-largest producer, faces a 15% tariff.
Hershey’s, the largest chocolate manufacturer in the US, said in the spring that tariffs could cost the company more than $100m and that it would have to raise prices amid soaring cocoa costs.
While the company clarified that the “change is not related to tariffs or trade policies”, it has been asking the Trump administration to make a tariff exemption for cocoa. Other business groups have recently asked the Trump administration for tariff exemptions on cocoa, along with other agricultural products that are hard to source in the US.
Because the cocoa plant can only be grown in tropical climates, the only two US places that can produce cocoa – and do so in extremely small quantities – are Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Even if chocolate is manufactured in the US, as Hershey’s is, the base cocoa ingredient has to be sourced from abroad.
How companies price their products can include an extremely opaque mix of factors, including consumer demand and expectations. A recent survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) found that 79% of shoppers are expecting Halloween prices to be higher this year compared with last.
Research from Villacis and other economists show that demand for candy, especially chocolate, remains high even when prices go up. Such strong demand can give producers more power in passing on price increases to consumers, even in subtle ways.
“Chocolate producers have two options: they can either just pass this additional cost to the final consumer or they can absorb this higher cost as a loss,” Villacis said. “Something in between that we have been observing is a subtle form of what we call ‘shrinkflation’. In this case, what we have seen is not that they are making their products smaller, but they are reformulating the products in the sense that they are putting less cocoa and trying to replace cocoa with other things like almonds or more milk.”
Shrinkflation became something of an internet trend over the last few years as companies tried to subtly adjust the sizes of their products, causing consumers to notice slightly smaller sizes while prices stayed the same. For candy, it could look like more products made of white chocolate, which contains no cocoa.
“It’s not really clear how companies are approaching this right now, but we’ve all had this moment to get used to some of the tactics that they’re using to pass along price increases to consumers,” said Angela Hanks, chief of policy programs at the Century Foundation, adding that “companies take advantage of a moment where people expect prices to increase and pre-emptively increase them”.
For example, Walmart in May said that price increases started showing up for certain products starting in late April as the company was preparing for tariffs, even before the levies went into effect.
“We’re wired to keep prices low, but there’s a limit to what we can bear, or any retailer for that matter,” Walmart’s CFO, John David Rainey, told the Associated Press at the time.
Despite the higher prices, consumers are expected to continue shelling out for their fix of sweets. The NRF estimated that total Halloween sales, from candy to decorations and costumes, will reach $13.1bn, a new record after reaching a peak of $12.2bn in 2023. Data from the National Confectioners Association showed that Halloween candy sales made up 18% of all confectionery retail sales in 2024.
“Chocolate products are really embedded into American holiday culture,” Villacis said. “As economists, we cannot help noticing how each candy bar tells a story of global trade. It’s a constant reminder that economics touches everything in our lives.”
