After Nigel Farage dominated the summer headlines with weekly press conferences while his rivals were on their sunloungers and the news agenda was light, Labour strategists swore they would never let it happen again.
Labour MPs had returned to Westminster after recess, fuming that the government had vacated the public arena and allowed Reform UK to shape the narrative to the extent that the mood hardened against Keir Starmer.
“People in their constituencies have been getting terrible feedback. Farage has been everywhere,” one MP said at the time. “The mood was: this has been a fucking disaster. We’ve been given nothing to do. The government just cleared the pitch.”
The febrile atmosphere on the backbenches has largely given way to despondency since the summer, but the anxiety around Reform’s persistent lead in the polls in the run up to next May’s elections remains.
So Reform’s decision to hold a burst of press conferences, at which they take dozens of questions, three days in a row this week to coincide with the news agenda slowing down during the school half-term break, has sent a chill down the spines of some Labour MPs.
That Farage and his key lieutenants brush aside scrutiny on detail and brazenly push half-truths and pet theories that could be turned into news stories does little to reassure them – he gets away with responses more mainstream politicians would not.
“Whenever Farage opens his mouth he seems to create news, even if he’s talking absolute bollocks, and somehow that sustains Reform’s lead in the polls,” said one frustrated Labour MP.
“At least we haven’t vacated the pitch like we did in the summer, but we still haven’t got our strategy on Reform right. We can’t just take them on, we also need to shout about our own alternative. Whatever we do at the moment it doesn’t seem to make much difference.”
Reform shows no sign of altering its strategy. “We’re at our best when we’re on our front foot. If you want people to vote for you, you have to set out your long-term vision. If we stay silent on the big issues how are people supposed to know what we stand for?” one Reform insider said.
They say their policies, which this week included announcements on an overhaul of government, grooming gangs and welfare cuts, are properly costed, after Farage’s plan to save £234bn from migrant benefit cuts fell apart when it emerged 4 million EU nationals would be exempt.
Farage hopes to dominate the agenda again next week, with a big speech on Monday overhauling the party’s economic policy – which Labour and the Tories see as a key weakness – by committing to cut spending before reducing taxes if he makes it into power.
Two days later, Richard Tice, the economic spokesperson, has been invited to deliver a lecture at Bloomberg, which has previously hosted Rachel Reeves and her predecessor as chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.
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Reform insiders are planning for their energetic messaging to continue into the short Commons break at the end of the week, when the news agenda could again be light. But not everybody in Labour is over-worried.
“It was tactically smart of Reform to do press conferences over the summer, but when the business of government is happening it gets lost,” said one senior Labour source. Pitch-rolling before the budget and plans to house migrants in military bases have grabbed more headlines.
Labour insiders question the wisdom of Farage’s attempts to put himself in the spotlight. “He’s a big attention-seeker. But he didn’t perform well this week – he came across as too snarly and grumpy on Tuesday and couldn’t answer the question on Sarah Pochin,” one said.
“They’re announcing policy too soon. It’s years until the election and the public just don’t care. The novelty value of Farage will wear off quite quickly and he’ll leave himself exposed. We think there’s a cap on their support.”
It is not yet clear whether there is, in fact, a limit to Reform’s electoral appeal, but while Farage attempts to juggle insurgency with casting himself as a prime minister in waiting, Labour cannot afford to be complacent.
