Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
RENTAL FAMILY, from left: Mari Yamamoto, Brendan Fraser, 2025. ph: James Lisle / © Searchlight Pictures / courtesy Everett Collection
©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Oct. 23, 2025): As the early days of the Oscar race continues to heat up, the fall festival circuit continues to spotlight quiet contenders and crowd-pleasers alike. At the Middleburg Film Festival, the Audience Award ended in a second consecutive year of a tie between two awards hopefuls: Focus Features’ “Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao’s intimate adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel, and Searchlight’s “Rental Family,” Hikari’s offbeat and emotionally resonant dramedy.
Meanwhile, AFI Fest opened with 20th Century Studios’ “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” Scott Cooper’s biopic chronicling the making of Nebraska, which opens nationwide this weekend.
And down south, the SCAD Savannah Film Festival kicks off Saturday with A24’s “Eternity,” a high-concept romance that premiered at Toronto and has its fair share of fans.
Updated predictions are below.
Top 3 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” (13); “Hamnet” (11); “Wicked: For Good” (10)
Top 3 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (28); Netflix (16); Focus Features and Neon (15)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival/Kasper Tuxen
Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Joachim Trier
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics
Timothée Chalamet ***
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
Image Credit: Searchlight
Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amanda Seyfried
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features
Benicio del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Andrew Scott
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stellan Skarsgård
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Warner Bros.
Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Amy Madigan
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Casting
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Robin D. Cook
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine MaislerOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Neon
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Jafar Panahi
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan CooglerOscar category page with rankings>>>
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Netflix
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Thomas Anderson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Craig Brewer
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story” (Netflix)
Rian JohnsonOscar category page with rankings>>>
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Annecy
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Production Design
Image Credit: Universal Pictures
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole, Ben Procter
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Nathan Crowley, Lee SandalesOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Cinematography
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Robbie Ryan
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Łukasz Żal
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho VelosoOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Costume Design
Image Credit: Sabrina Lantos/Sony Pictures Classics
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Consolata Boyle
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Film Editing
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andy Jurgensen
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. Shawver
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Myron KersteinOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Murray Close/Lionsgate
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“The Long Walk” (Lionsgate)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Visual Effects
Image Credit: Disney
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“The Fantastic Four: The First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of SIFF
“Ballad of a Small Player” (Netflix)
Volker Bertelmann
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Jerskin Fendrix
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig GöranssonOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Song
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Dream as One” by Miley Cyrus, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” by Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson and Alice Smith
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen SchwartzOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Brandon Somerhalder
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films) ***
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix)
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
International Feature
Image Credit: Neon
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
dir. Park-Chan wook
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (U.S. Distributor TBD)
dir. Kaouther Ben HaniaOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
