The NFL season resumes on Thursday with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field. With the upgraded DraftKings promo code, new users receive $200 in bonus bets and $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket to use for your NFL weekend. Thursday also includes a seven-game MLB slate as options to build a Thursday online sports betting parlay, and the SportsLine model projects value in a pair of Over in game totals when Thursday MLB betting.
Specifically at DraftKings, the model sees one of the best values of the Thursday sports slate in the Packers covering a 3-point spread. DraftKings offers the Packers as 3-point favorites at -120 odds at a key number. The Packers cover the 3-point spread in 63% of the model’s simulations, compared to the -120 odds giving an implied probability of 54.55%, making it one of its Thursday best bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and an A-rated pick. Before locking in your Thursday NFL picks and MLB picks on your favorite betting sites like DraftKings, be sure to check out the top NFL betting and MLB betting picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model. Claim the latest DraftKings promo code here, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a 33-17 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 25 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 34-25 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 50 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Best Thursday picks:
- Packers (-3) vs. Commanders (-120)
- Phillies vs. Mets Over 8 total runs (-115)
- Padres vs. Rockies Over 8.5 total runs (-119)
Combining the model’s three picks into a Thursday parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +577 (risk $100 to win $577). Bet it at DraftKings here:
Packers (-3) vs. Commanders (-120)
The Packers are coming off a 27-13 victory over the Lions, who were the top seed in the NFC last season, in Week 1, and they remain at Lambeau Field for Week 2. Green Bay went 6-3 at home last season, with five of its six victories coming by more than three points. The Packers went 5-3 at home the season before in Jordan Love’s first season as a starter. Green Bay was aggressive this offseason in adding high-profile win-now assets, such as drafting wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, along with trading for Micah Parsons and signing the defensive end to a massive contract. The model projects the Packers to cover the spread in 63% of simulations for an 8:15 p.m. start.
Mets vs. Phillies Over 8 total runs (-115)
The Phillies have scored 20 runs over their last two games against the Mets, going Over this total by themselves in each of those contests. The Mets and Phillies complete a four-game series on Thursday, and they averaged 13 total runs over the last two contests. Both teams have top-10 offenses in the sport, with Philadelphia ninth at 4.82 runs per game and the Mets right behind at 4.73 runs per contest. The Mets are starting David Peterson, who, despite making his first All-Star Game this season, has a 14.73 ERA over his last two starts. The Phillies are starting Jesus Luzardo, who allowed four runs over four innings against the Mets on August 26. The model projects the Over to hit in 61.4% of simulations in a 7:15 p.m. ET start.
Padres vs. Rockies Over 8.5 total runs (-119)
The Padres and Rockies will meet for the second time in their last three series, and the Padres scored 18 runs over their final two matchups last week to average Over this total by themselves. The Rockies are allowing 6.4 runs per game this season as their historically bad 2025 season nears its conclusion, and the Padres have scored 9.2 runs per game over their last two series against Colorado. McCade Brown is making his fourth career start for the Rockies, and the 25-year-old has a 12.54 ERA, including allowing six runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Padres on Saturday. The model projects the Over to hit in 64.7% of simulations for this 9:40 p.m. ET start.
Want more Commanders vs. Packers picks and MLB picks for Thursday, September 11?
You’ve seen the model’s Thursday best bets. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for day MLB games, along with the Week 2 NFL schedule and college football, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see Thursday NFL picks from SportsLine expert Bruce Marshall, who is 15-8 (+632) over his last 23 NFL picks. He’s already locked in an NFL pick for Packers vs. Commanders. See his best bets right here.
