Last week, we lost our top-rated college football play based on motivational or situational circumstances when Virginia Tech (-1) lost to Vanderbilt at home 44-20. The Hokies came out with an inspired disposition and built a 20-10 halftime lead, only to see the second half play out like an entirely new game.
The Commodores refocused and immediately scored on their first two drives, eventually turning a close game into a 34-0 shutout in the second half, much to the dismay of the passionate Virginia Tech faithful at Lane Stadium. Much of the hope that was derived from Virginia Tech’s respectable outing against South Carolina in Week 1 has devolved into a gloomy outlook, and we’re confident coach Brent Pry’s days are numbered with the Hokies. This was a major swing game for the trajectory of their season, and they played like it in the first half, only to wilt at the first sign of resistance from a well-coached Vanderbilt club in the third quarter.
We thought the Hokies were in a great spot and were unfortunately wrong, but clarity on the top motivational or letdown spots in college becomes easier to identify as the season wears on. We struggled in the first weeks of last season with this angle before eventually finishing with a 10-5 record with our top-rated recommendations.
Moving on to Week 3, we are featuring another ACC club we believe should be in a prime motivational spot. Here is the play along with analysis:
Clemson -3 or -150 money line
Both of these numbers represent massive discounts on a Clemson club that, in live look-ahead spreads at sportsbooks two weeks ago, had Clemson as a 9.5-point favorite with a money line in the -300 range. The Tigers are on sale based on two subpar performances, but we believe they are in an excellent bounce-back spot. Over on SportsLine, we posted our official pick on the money line, but you can lay the three points if you don’t wish to bet the ML price.
The market is down on Clemson after it squandered a 10-3 halftime lead against LSU and suffered a 17-10 loss amid a scoreless second half. Last week against what we believe will prove to be a mediocre Troy team, the Tigers fell behind 16-0 before rallying for a 27-16 victory. Some level of letdown wasn’t surprising following the LSU loss, but it was eye-opening to see a two-TD deficit against a team as marginal as Troy.
This caused bettors to fire on Georgia Tech, and there was undoubtedly some value in grabbing a touchdown or more, but we are biting on this fire-sale price. First, the Tigers still have a chance to win the ACC amid a favorable schedule the rest of the way. We expect coach Dabo Swinney to use last week’s clunker as a wake-up call and give a much-improved performance.
Moreover, a lot of the Georgia Tech support comes from deserved faith in dual-threat QB Haynes King, whose combination of talent and resilience always makes the Yellow Jackets a tough opponent, especially at home, where they have won their last six games. However, King missed last week’s game against Gardner-Webb because of a lower-body injury. He is expected to play Saturday, although he’s not 100% healthy.
In Week 1, the Yellow Jackets barely escaped with a 27-20 road win over a marginal Colorado team despite committing three turnovers and eight penalties. The Yellow Jackets are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games against Clemson, and we’re looking for the Tigers to make it 3-9 behind a strong situational spot favoring the better team.
