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NFC South rivals kick off their 2025 NFL campaigns as the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 1 showdown on Sunday. Tampa Bay topped the division in 2024 with a 10-7 record, while Atlanta lost its last two games of the season to finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs for a seventh straight season. The Falcons have won four of their last five meetings with the Buccaneers.
Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 1 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 47.5. Before making any Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks, make sure you check out the picks from the SportsLine projection model.
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Here are SportsLine model’s best bets for Buccaneers vs. Falcons on Sunday:
Buccaneers -1.5
Despite the recent head-to-head results, the model is confident in the Bucs as the road favorites. Michael Penix Jr. is still unproven as he takes over at QB1, and he totaled three touchdowns and three interceptions over five games in 2024. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has a returning corps on offense including Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. This could be why SportsLine’s model has the Buccaneers covering the spread in 64% of simulations.
Over 47.5
Tampa Bay’s overall defense ranked 18th in the league last season (341.8 yards per game) and Atlanta’s ranked 23rd (345.2 yards per game.) Both teams struggled against the pass in 2024, and new additions to the Falcons d-corps isn’t expected to be enough to stop Mayfield in his tracks. Tampa Bay’s fourth-ranked rush defense couldn’t keep Bijan Robinson down last year, and the star back for Atlanta has 36 carries for 161 yards and has scored two touchdowns in four career games against the Bucs. The Over hits in 58% of simulations by the SportsLine projection model.
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