Ethnic minorities and people living in the most deprived areas of England are at increased risk of dying due to excess heat, according to research.
A study, published in BMJ Public Health, is the first of its kind to assess the role of socio-environmental factors in the risk of heat-related deaths.
Previous figures from the University College London (UCL) found almost 600 people were expected to die in the heatwave that took place in early June across England, with more than 10,000 people having died prematurely in summer heatwaves between 2020 and 2024.
The report analysed the records of more than 430,000 patients across England who died between 2016 and 2020, and used relative effect modification, or REM, which indicates whether a risk, such as dying due to extreme heat, affects some groups more than others.
If the REM is 1, it means both groups are affected the same while if higher than 1, the group being compared is more affected.
The study found that black people had a REM index of 1.27, and for Asian people it was 1.1, meaning that the effect of heat on the risk of dying was 27% higher for black people compared with their white counterparts, and 10% higher for people from an Asian background.
This data suggests heat has a more harmful impact on these groups, possibly due to differences in housing, access to cooling, underlying health issues or other social and economic factors that all affect health outcomes more generally.
People in the two most deprived groups across England had a higher risk of a heat-related death than their counterparts from the two least deprived groups. The study did not find a significant association with the middle groups of deprivation.
“These findings provide important further evidence on the role of climate change in exacerbating existing health inequalities,” said Dr Ross Thompson, principal environmental public health scientist at theUKHSA and lead author of the study.
He added: “Despite increases in heat-related deaths in England in recent years, there are still gaps in our knowledge around the risk that extreme heat presents to each individual, which hinders targeted prevention, and so these findings enhance our understanding.
“These findings will help the healthcare sector in developing strategies to identify and subsequently prioritise patients at the highest risk during heat events, and it is vital that we work with our partners to capitalise on these insights to protect those in need as extreme heat becomes more common.’’
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Figures show there were 2,985 excess heat deaths recorded in England after the heatwaves of 2022, when temperatures reached in excess of 40C. Heat deaths across England and Wales are expected to rise in the coming years, and scientists say 30,000 people a year could die from heat-related causes by the 2070s.
Prof Lea Berrang Ford, the head of the UKHSA Centre for Climate and Health Security, said that it was clear that even with adaptation, heat-related deaths across the UK would increase due to climate change and an ageing population.
“Of particular importance is the distinction identified in this study between clinical vulnerability and risk,” she added. “When identifying those most at risk, these findings highlight the need to take into account a number of contextual factors … which will have important implications for how patients are prioritised by clinicians during periods of heat in the future.’’
Matthew Bazeley-Bell, the deputy chief executive of the Royal Society for Public Health, said: “The climate crisis is a public health crisis and this alarming research underpins the need for urgent action. As well as reducing emissions, it is vital that policymakers put robust plans in place to protect communities that are disproportionately impacted by rising temperatures.”
