There are 35 U.S. Senate races in the midterm elections on Tuesday, but less than a third are expected to be competitive.
Those 11 closely watched races — from Maine to the Midwest to Alaska — will determine whether Democrats will wrest back control of the chamber, or Republicans will maintain the majority they have held since President Trump thundered back to power in the 2024 election.
One of the most high-wattage races is in Michigan. The Democratic nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, is a progressive who would be the nation’s first Muslim senator. His race is a test of the progressive movement’s ability to win in a traditional swing state. He faces former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican, who says he disagrees with the Iran war and Mr. Trump’s tariff policies. In recent days, a Democratic former rival of Dr. El-Sayed, Representative Haley Stevens, pulled her endorsement of him and said she would vote for Mr. Rogers, rocking the campaign.
Another high-profile race has played out in Maine, where Senator Susan Collins, a centrist Republican, is trying to win a sixth term. Maine reliably votes for Democrats in presidential election years, and Ms. Collins has built a reputation as a political survivor. But she has never run in such a challenging environment. She faces Troy Jackson, a progressive logger and former State Senate president who entered the race in an unusual candidate switch up.
Voters in Texas are choosing between Ken Paxton and James Talarico for Senate.Credit…Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times
Perhaps the biggest test of the power of Mr. Trump’s endorsement is in Texas, where he has backed Ken Paxton, the state’s scandal-plagued attorney general and a Trump loyalist. Mr. Trump supported Mr. Paxton in a Republican primary over Senator John Cornyn, a longtime pillar of the Republican establishment. Mr. Paxton faces State Representative James Talarico, a Democrat and former middle-school teacher who has put his Christian faith at the forefront of his campaign.
The most surprising top battleground is Kansas, where the Rev. Adam Hamilton, a centrist Democrat, is trying unseat Senator Roger Marshall, a first-term Republican. Mr. Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, has argued that Mr. Marshall has not stood up to Mr. Trump to help Kansas farmers, who have been hit hard by high diesel and fertilizer prices caused by his tariff policies and the war in Iran. (Mr. Marshall has also struggled to explain his heavy-handed debt collection efforts when he was an obstetrician-gynecologist.)
Iowa’s election between Josh Turek and Representative Ashley Hinson may be close.Credit…KC McGinnis for The New York Times
A similar dynamic is playing out in Iowa, where State Representative Josh Turek, a centrist Democrat and Paralympics gold medalist, faces Representative Ashley Hinson, a Republican former TV news anchor. Ms. Hinson has become an outspoken critic of the Iran war late in the race, though she has not voted to rein in Mr. Trump’s war powers.
In Ohio, a senator and a former senator are squaring off. Once a quintessential swing state, Ohio has tilted right in the Trump era. This year, it’s back in play, as former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat with a strong brand in the state, stages a comeback attempt. He is taking on Senator Jon Husted, a Republican who was appointed to the Senate when JD Vance vacated his seat to become vice president.
One of the quirkiest races is in conservative but independent-minded Alaska, where Senator Dan Sullivan, a Republican, is facing a spirited challenge from former Representative Mary Peltola, a centrist Democrat. Mr. Sullivan trailed Ms. Peltola by about eight percentage points in the state’s nonpartisan primary in August. But Ms. Peltola is entering the general election facing questions about Democrats’ efforts to recruit another Dan Sullivan to appear on the ballot — a move that Republicans have called a dirty trick.
Voters in Upper Arlington, Ohio. Credit…Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
Another unusual race is in deep-red Nebraska, where an independent, Dan Osborn, a mechanic, is challenging Senator Pete Ricketts, a Republican who filled Ben Sasse’s seat when he resigned in 2023. Mr. Osborn has received support from Democrats, and Republicans say he is a Democrat in all but party affiliation. Economic conditions in Nebraska, a heavily agricultural state, have challenged Mr. Ricketts.
A family political dynasty is at stake in South Carolina, where Senator Darline Graham, a Republican, is on the ballot after replacing her brother, Lindsey Graham, who died in July. Ms. Graham, a Trump ally, faces Dr. Annie Andrews, a Democrat. South Carolina is deeply Republican, and the state was not initially expected to be a battleground. But Ms. Graham, a first-time candidate, has stumbled at times, including in a primary debate when she was not “that informed on national security.”
One test for the left is in Minnesota, where the Democratic Party nominated Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan, a progressive. Minnesota consistently votes for Democrats in presidential elections, but Ms. Flanagan is contending with an unusual Republican opponent, Michele Tafoya, a moderate former football sideline reporter. Some Minnesota voters are frustrated with Democrats after a major fraud scandal in the state government’s social safety net programs.
Democrats are also working to defend blue-leaning territory in New Hampshire, where Representative Chris Pappas, the Democratic nominee, is running against former Senator John E. Sununu, a centrist Republican and a critic of Mr. Trump. Mr. Sununu once wrote an opinion essay with the headline “Donald Trump is a loser.” Mr. Pappas would be the first openly gay man to serve in the Senate.
