Grooming gang perpetrators and killers, including those responsible for PC Andrew Harper’s death, will be blocked from early prison release under changes announced by Andy Burnham after a backlash over the scope of the scheme.
Here is a primer on how the crisis unfolded and what the upshot of Burnham’s decision could be.
What is happening to prison sentences?
From 1 October 2026, a change to sentencing rules means some adults serving a standard prison sentence in England and Wales will be released earlier than the date originally planned, the Institute for Government explains.
Prisoners convicted of less serious offences, who currently spend 40% or 50% of their sentence in prison, will leave prison after a third of their sentence. A second group, currently released after two-thirds of their sentence, will leave after half.
Leaving prison does not end the sentence. The person serves the rest of their sentence in the community on licence, under conditions set by probation, and can be returned to prison if those conditions are breached.
Murderers or people handed life or extended sentences have never been included in any proposals for reducing sentences and will stay locked up until they go before the Parole Board.
Why is this happening?
The Labour government says it inherited a prison system on the brink of collapse, with fewer than 100 spaces left in the summer of 2024. No 10 says a lack of investment in the prison estate, with just 500 net places added over a decade, has led to a situation where adult male prisons are now at 98% capacity. It says the steps are necessary while it builds capacity.
Has this been controversial?
Very. The controversy stemmed from who was set to be released. Initially, all adults serving a standard determinate sentence were to be released early, including those sentenced for serious violent and sexual offences. In early August, the government said the scheme would not apply to sentences for rape and serious child sex offences.
There had been longstanding concern about those parts of the proposals, but the backlash intensified in late July and early August when it emerged that the killers of a police officer, PC Andrew Harper, who were sentenced for manslaughter, would be eligible for early release under the proposal.
The issue presented the first real headache for Burnham, who was appointed as prime minister on 20 July.
What has been proposed as a solution?
On Sunday, two days before parliament’s return from recess, No 10 announced that sentences for unlawful killing would be blocked from the early release scheme. This means Harper’s killers, among many others, will not be eligible for early release.
Historical grooming offences, any form of manslaughter, causing death by dangerous driving and causing or allowing the death of a child will also be barred from the changes to the prison sentences.
What else has been proposed?
Burnham also announced that he would end imprisonment for public protection (IPP) sentences during this parliament, due to end in 2029. The IPP was introduced in 2005 and gave offenders a minimum jail tariff but no maximum. It was used much more widely than intended and many prisoners have languished in prison well beyond their minimum tariff, in some cases for less serious offences.
No 10 said the move was to address an “injustice” but it is also likely to free up space in the creaking prison system. However, Downing Street has said it will take time.
What will happen to those released early?
Burnham said that to protect victims, the government would be introducing the “toughest ever” supervision measures for offenders, including tagging and, for the first time, putting restriction zones in place to stop offenders getting near their victims.
What will be the impact on the prison overcrowding crisis?
Prison reform campaigners are sceptical. Mike Trace, the chief executive of the Forward Trust, a social justice charity that supports people in recovery from addiction or leaving crime behind, said: “Today’s announcement delays rather than deals with the problem of prison overcrowding. By sticking with a policy of early rather than earned release, the PM will likely face many more instances like with the killers of PC Andrew Harper case where prisoners are being released when it is not safe to do so.
“The only way to reduce prison numbers safely is to create a justice system that is genuinely rehabilitative. We urge the government to start doing the kind of things – like expanding access to rehabilitation services and creating an earned, early release scheme for prisoners committed to recovery – that shift us out of crisis management and build a system that protects, saves and improves lives.”
Andrea Coomber, the chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “The prime minister has indicated that further changes will be made to the implementation of the Sentencing Act. Further direction should come on Tuesday, but we are concerned that the details announced so far will make it even harder to tackle the prison capacity crisis in the short term.
“Prisons up and down the country have been under tremendous pressure in recent weeks and, with the start date of October fast approaching, it is crucial that they receive the clarity they need to ensure people leave custody with appropriate support.”
