Oil prices have fallen to pre-Iran war levels as more oil tankers exited the strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to a low of $72.24 a barrel on Thursday, slightly lower than the day before the US and Israel launched missile attacks on Tehran on 28 February. Prices have fallen more than 20% this month.
Brent crude for August delivery was trading lower than that for September, which was priced at $73.59, indicating ample short-term supply.
A red line graph showing fluctuations in the price of brent crude since 23 February
Vessel traffic in the strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping passage, doubled over the previous 24 hours to its highest level since late February, according to CNN and MarineTraffic data.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at the banking group Swissquote, said news that vessels were now transiting the strait with their satellite signals switched on had helped push down the oil price.
She added: “A combination of strategic inventory releases, a collapse in demand from top buyer China and a substantial number of tankers quietly leaving the Persian Gulf ‘dark’ had contributed to a small oversupply in some important markets.”
Susannah Streeter, the chief investment strategist at the platform Wealth Club, said: “Fears of a long-lasting global energy crunch induced by the Iran conflict are slinking away, with oil prices sinking back towards pre-crisis levels.”
The fall in oil prices has eased concerns about the prospect of another inflationary shock.
Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic were up on Thursday. The pan European Stoxx 600 hit a record high, as did the Dow Jones.
In the UK, the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, welcomed the easing tensions in the Middle East that have pulled down oil price to pre-Iran war levels.
Speaking to the Shetland Times on a trip to the Scottish islands, he said: “There were comments from the US that it would be over any day soon – they were going on for a month almost. But it does look like a truce has broken out. And what’s interesting is that, particularly this week, there’s quite a sharp fall in energy prices.”
The RAC said the drop in oil prices meant petrol in the UK was likely to fall on average to below 150p a litre in the coming days, making unleaded the cheapest in three months. Diesel should fall back below 160p.
“We urge retailers to pass on the savings they’re benefiting on the wholesale market to drivers straight away,” said Simon Williams, an RAC spokesperson.
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Petrol peaked at 159.53p on 28 May and diesel hit a high of 191.54p on 15 April.
On Thursday, a Liberian-registered oil tanker made its way out of the strait of Hormuz using a new route close to Oman that has been promoted by a UN maritime agency, despite threats from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Tensions are rising again between Iran and the US over the terms of their interim accord. In a memorandum of understanding signed last week, both agreed to a 60-day period while they tried to negotiate a permanent peace deal.
A big threat to the deal is Lebanon. Israel launched an airstrike that killed two people in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, the country’s state-run news agency said. It was Israel’s first airstrike in Lebanon since the latest ceasefire took effect on Saturday.
Streeter said: “There’s still a long way to go to clear the backlog and fully meet demand, but with oil-producing nations turning on the taps and repairs to infrastructure ongoing, oil prices are on the decline. Energy-efficiency measures adopted during the crisis, coupled with fears of slowing global growth, are contributing to the bearish outlook for the sector.
“However, one energy shock is replacing another as far as Europe is concerned as it languishes under a punishing heatwave. Peak evening wholesale electricity prices have reached multi-year highs in several European markets this week. Offices and public buildings are cranking up cooling systems, while portable air conditioners and fans are being switched on as people try to cope with the record-breaking heat.”
Ozkardeskaya predicted that oil prices would probably swing between $60 and $80 a barrel in the coming weeks.
“Geopolitical risks remain, as the Middle East is rarely a calm sea, China will start tapping into the oil market as tensions ease, and countries will begin replenishing their strategic reserves, absorbing part of the additional supply,” she said.
