People in the US are poised to endure another summer of unusually ferocious heat and there will be little respite in the years ahead, with a new study finding that the coming 15 years could see a doubling in hospitalizations due to heat-related illnesses.
The number of annual heat-related emergency department visits or hospitalizations across the US are set to rise from about 109,000 cases a year to as many as 237,000 cases by 2040, the new research has estimated.
This, in turn, will almost double annual healthcare costs for heat-related conditions to more than $1bn, the new paper, published in the American Geophysical Union journal GeoHealth, found.
Severe heat kills more people in the US each year than all other extreme weather events combined, with deaths surging by more than 50% over the past two decades.
Illnesses and deaths are most likely among poorer people who are unable to afford to run air conditioning, work outside for prolonged hours, live in houses badly designed for high temperatures or have exacerbating health conditions.
Already this year, the US has experienced its hottest ever March on record, with this summer expected to have above-average temperatures and potentially widespread wildfires, part of a longer-term trend of rising heat caused by the climate crisis.
A string of punishingly hot summers, particularly in places not used to such conditions, is likely to heap new challenges upon public health systems, the researchers warned.
“There is this staggering cost to society we are going to see over the next 15 years,” said Vivek Shandas, a professor at Portland State University and study co-author. “It’s not that we will see this plateau of heat-related illnesses and we will get acclimated to it – there is going to be this sustained increase.
“Heat is an amplifying event and so if you are already struggling with a pre-existing condition, there’s a good chance it will lead to some sort illness like heatstroke or even death.”
The new research looked at 53 of the US’s largest metropolitan areas and projected heat-related illnesses from now until 2040 under a range of different scenarios for levels of planet-heating emissions, caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
Shandas and his co-author, Stephan Brown of CAPA Strategies, found that the impact of hospitalizations will not fall evenly, with the California and Las Vegas areas set to experience the greatest total number of heat-related health problems. Areas not used to extreme heat, such as the north-east and Ohio valley, are expected to suffer the most severe health consequences from each major heat event.
Problems are most likely to be felt by elderly people and those with existing health conditions, but economic and government policy factors will also play a role. Donald Trump’s administration has slashed programs aimed at helping cities deal with extreme heat, while his presidency has also overseen soaring energy costs for Americans.
The average US household is expected to spend nearly $800 on electricity this summer, up more than 10% from last year, according to a report released last week by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) and the Center for Energy Poverty and Climate. The report authors warned this is creating an affordability crisis that will deter many people from cooling their homes.
“When temperatures break records, utility bills often do too,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA. “For families already struggling to make ends meet, higher cooling costs can force difficult choices between paying utility bills and covering other necessities such as food, rent, or medicine.”
All of these factors mean that extreme heat is likely to have a potentially disastrous impact upon those unable to cool themselves via air conditioning, Shandas warned.
“It’s a moment where a number of trains are heading towards each other on the same track,” he said. “The heat risk isn’t growing just because of the temperature, it’s growing because more vulnerable people are living in places that are getting more extreme heat.”
Many cities, particularly in the more northerly latitudes of the US, are “woefully unprepared” for extreme heat, Shandas added.
“We are seeing public health agencies under strain and a retracting of a lot of climate-related interventions across the country,” he said. “I’m very concerned about this summer, particularly for older people on fixed incomes.”
