The world is facing a cancer workforce crisis, experts have said, with a shortage of 100 million staff expected by 2050 as 100,000 people are diagnosed every day.
Patients could face much longer waits to be diagnosed and treated in future as the global cancer burden continues to rise and threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems, according to a report at the world’s largest oncology conference.
The research, which was presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual meeting in Chicago, says the world faces a projected shortfall of 100 million cancer care workers by 2050. The largest gaps will be in nursing (about 65 million) and diagnostic staff (about 16 million).
The workforce crisis comes amid a predicted 21% increase in cancer incidence, the report says. The rate is set to rise from 165 per 100,000 people in 2025 to 200 in 2050.
Globally, about 20 million people a year are diagnosed with cancer. By 2050 that figure could top 35.3 million, according to the report published in the Lancet. That is the equivalent of almost 100,000 diagnoses a day.
Speaking in Chicago at the report’s launch, its co-author Mark Lawler, a professor of digital health at Queen’s University Belfast, said the findings were “sobering”.
“The predicted 35m in cancer cases each year globally is in sharp contrast to the projected global shortfall of 100 million cancer care workers by 2050. Make no mistake, this is a wake-up call, no matter where you are in the world.
“What we’ve uncovered is shocking – how can we reconcile a 15m increase in cancer cases diagnosed with a 100 million decrease in cancer staffing? The data unfortunately do not lie. We can’t wait until 2050 to see if our projections are correct – we must act now.”
Diagnosing everyone who has cancer is already a significant problem worldwide. Without a diagnosis, patients are much less likely to survive. As many as 18.5 million cancer deaths a year are projected by 2050.
Currently, one in three cancer cases are undiagnosed worldwide, the report says, with as many as 60% of people with cancer undiagnosed in some parts of Africa.
In high-income countries, cancer survival has substantially increased in recent decades, mainly due to new treatments and improvements in early detection.
While cancer survival in high-income countries is predicted to exceed 60% by 2050, the report says the workforce crisis will also affect these countries, compromising their ability to improve outcomes.
The report’s co-lead, Dr Hedvig Hricak, the chair emeritus at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, said: “Our global initiative brings a clear warning: without urgent action to address critical workforce shortages, we risk a cancer crisis unlike anything we’ve seen before.
“We call for immediate, country-specific strategies, smarter workforce use, task-shifting and AI/digital health adoption, alongside future-ready education and strong, sustainable financing through public-private partnerships.”
The report offers several recommendations to address the projected shortage of staff. They include implementing national cancer control plans that embed workforce development; investing in technology, education and retention; expanding regional and international partnerships; and providing adequate funding for these long-term efforts.
Investing in the cancer workforce now could avert 170 million cancer deaths between 2030 and 2050 and deliver about $120tn (£89tn) in net economic benefits, according to the report.
Another report co-author, Dr Peter Kingham, the director of Memorial Sloan Kettering’s global cancer research and training programme, said a focus on cancer prevention was key, such as promoting healthier diets and countering sedentary lifestyles.
However, urgent action to tackle the workforce crisis was also essential, he said, given the growing and ageing global population meant more people would develop cancer than ever before.
“Cancer is fundamentally a disease of ageing,” he said. “As global life expectancy rises and conditions such as HIV are managed as chronic rather than terminal illnesses, more people worldwide are living long enough to face a cancer risk.
“This demographic shift is not a failure – it reflects remarkable progress in global health, but it demands an equally ambitious response in cancer care.”
