Britain’s vital supply chains are unprepared for the prospect of a major shock such as war with Russia, and bold steps are needed to catch up with “worst-case scenario” planning by European states, ministers have been warned.
Donald Trump’s “America First” transformation of the US, which has made what was once a trusted UK ally a much less reliable partner, should also feed into that planning, according to a new report.
The warnings are contained in research by the National Preparedness Commission (NPC), which promotes national crisis planning and is overseen by a panel including senior figures from emergency services, the NHS and experts on risk and security.
The calls coincide with continuing concern over the impact of the war in the Middle East on fuel costs and the prices of food and other goods in the UK, which saw the government recently ask supermarkets to consider freezing the prices of some essentials.
The report, launched privately at Westminster last week, puts a spotlight on the resilience of Britain’s supply chain and how it could be tested by looming dangers ranging from a fresh pandemic, the climate crisis or what is now focusing the minds of officials: a war with Russia.
It said that Britain is lagging behind other European countries when it comes to the stockpiling of supplies such as critical medicines, and called for fresh thinking.
“The conversation in government should shift from why we should not stockpile to how and where we might most sensibly do it. It is easy to forget that during the pandemic the UK benefited from medicines that had been stockpiled to pre-empt disrupted supplies on leaving the EU,” it said.
In terms of stockpiling for the health sector alone, it noted that medicine suppliers are required to hold at least eight weeks of buffer stock for hospitals, but compliance is patchy and not mandated for pharmacies serving primary care.
The government also has no intention to produce a critical medicines list or to strategically stockpile critical medicines or medical equipment, it added, other than to assist military personnel in the event of a CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear) attack.
By contrast, many EU states require pharmaceutical companies to hold buffer stocks of designated medicines ranging from one month to six months.
When it comes to food supply, the UK is one of the least self-sufficient countries in Europe. The government neither has a strategic stockpile nor does it require big wholesalers and distributors to hold buffer stocks. By contrast, countries such as Norway and Sweden have begun to rebuild emergency grain and food reserves while other EU states proactively encourage households to store several days’ worth of food and water for emergencies.
The report – titled Future-proofing Security of Supply in a Contested World – warned that recent global events such as the Iran war and repeated lurches in international relations raised profound questions about the future ability of the UK to access raw materials and components.
Britain also faces being squeezed by what the report describes as the “hard-nosed nationalism” of the US, the collaborations of EU states, China’s manufacturing and Russia’s war economy footing.
It comes nearly a year on from the publication of the government’s national security strategy, initiatives such as moves to prioritise British suppliers for contracts in sectors vital to national security, and calls by Keir Starmer for a “whole-of-society” approach to security and resilience.
But there are concerns that the issue has lost focus amid other political distractions, while the Commons defence committee reported last November that the “national conversation” sought by the prime minister had yet to start, with little public engagement and no clear central direction.
“It is a mistake to assume that catastrophic events will not happen,” warned the NPC report.
“The closure of the strait of Hormuz and disruption to regional air traffic due to the US-Israel war with Iran in March 2026 is the most recent thud in a drumbeat of wake-up calls about supply chain resilience,” it said. Along with the war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic, each had the effect of “exposing known vulnerabilities and revealing underappreciated fragility”.
Its author, Richard Smith-Bingham, a strategic adviser on risk and resilience and former head of insights at insurance broker and risk adviser Marsh, said the UK currently risked falling behind other countries in its efforts to secure the medium to long-term supply of critical materials, components and other vital goods.
“Hard choices must be made and bolder actions taken to reduce our vulnerability to coercion and ensure we are better prepared for sustained crises we might face,” he added.
A government spokesperson said: “The UK’s supply chains are strong and resilient and we actively monitor for risks.
“When pressures emerge, we’ve demonstrated we can act quickly, recently reopening a CO2 plant in the north-east to increase production and protect supplies.”
