For weeks, President Trump has searched for a way to end the war in Iran. He has tried threats of bombing, blockading and negotiating — sometimes all in the same day. On a few occasions, he has even suggested that the war is already over.
The New York Times analyzed the president’s statements suggesting that the conflict was drawing to a close and compared them with the reality of the moment.
Often, there was a wide disconnect. Mr. Trump has repeatedly threatened to use extreme force, only to hold his fire. In many cases he has made claims of major diplomatic progress that later proved unfounded, fueling criticism that he is trying to calm markets and relieve political pressure.
One of the first times a comment by Mr. Trump had an outsize effect on the markets was on March 23, when he instructed the Pentagon to postpone any attacks on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.
Mr. Trump’s suggestion that the administration was seeking an off-ramp from the conflict rallied investors.
Oil prices fell more than 10 percent on March 23
For the first time in almost two weeks, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, closed below $100. The last time the oil market had fallen so dramatically in response to Mr. Trump was on March 9, when he told CBS News that the Iran war was “very complete.”
That same day, Mr. Trump told reporters that diplomatic talks were underway with Tehran, claiming a “real possibility of making a deal.” The speaker of Iran’s parliament denied that, writing on X that “fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”
Days after posting that talks were going well, Mr. Trump once again resorted to threats. He posted on Truth Social on March 30 that he would take out Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not immediately opened.
The stock market hit its lowest point of the year. The next day, Mr. Trump promised that the U.S. would be leaving “very soon,” giving the market a boost.
The S&P 500 had its worst day of the year on March 30
Mr. Trump addressed the nation on April 1. While he did not predict an imminent resolution to the conflict, he said that his military objectives would be completed “very shortly” and that diplomacy was underway.
The stock market continued to tick up in the following days.
As negotiations have dragged on, the president has alternated between claims of diplomatic progress and threats of military escalation, neither of which have materialized.
Mr. Trump began April with some of his most dramatic threats of the war, including one to destroy Iran’s “civilization” on the night of April 7.
But later that evening, Mr. Trump announced one of the biggest developments of the war so far: a two-week cease-fire mediated by Pakistan.
Markets welcomed the cease-fire deal, which was supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but they did not move as much as they had earlier in April.
Oil prices initially fell, but have proven volatile
Tehran quickly said that continued fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Iran’s ally, Hezbollah, violated the deal, and Iran kept the strait closed. Mr. Trump argued Iran wasn’t upholding its end of the bargain.
Before the start of the war, about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas traveled through the strait. But once the war began, shipping traffic plummeted.
Shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed to a trickle
Iran has repeatedly promised to open the strait as part of the cease-fire agreement, but this hasn’t happened.
After the first round of negotiations with Iran failed on April 11, Mr. Trump announced a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports to cut off Tehran’s lucrative oil exports.
Furious, Iran said the strait would remain closed so long as the blockade continued.
In late April, Mr. Trump agreed to indefinitely extend a cease-fire and said U.S. officials would return to Pakistan for more talks. Days later, he canceled those talks.
The next week, on April 28, gasoline prices rose to their highest level in four years. There are few signs that the markets are listening to what he says.
- I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. Truth Social post on May 3 ›
- We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal. Remarks on May 6 ›
- I’m getting a letter supposedly tonight, so we’ll see how that goes. Press gaggle on May 8 ›
- We were getting ready to do a very major attack tomorrow, and I put it off … because we’ve had very big discussions with Iran … Press gaggle on May 18 ›
In May, Mr. Trump has continued to make claims about diplomatic progress with Iran. But once again, subsequent events have told a different story.
A list of negotiating positions that Iran sent to Mr. Trump on May 10 consisted of familiar hard-line demands and no meaningful new concessions. And just days after claiming the U.S. had conducted “very good talks” with Iran, he dismissed Tehran’s latest offer as “a piece of garbage.”
But Mr. Trump continues to show no signs of worry, telling reporters on Monday that despite his preparations to resume bombing, “there seems to be a very good chance” a deal can still be reached soon.
