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Opec lowers second-quarter global oil demand forecast
Opec, the oil cartel, has predicted that demand for crude will drop in the second quarter of this year, but then rebound.
Opec has lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day.
However, for 2026 as a whole, global oil demand is still forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 million barrels per day – unchanged on last month’s forecast – driven almost entirely by demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, India and Other Asia.
Opec says:
double quotation markThe slight transitory weakness in oil demand growth in 2Q26, given the ongoing developments in the Middle East, is expected to be compensated for in 3Q26 and 4Q26.
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Oil is still bobbing above $100 a barrel, as the 3pm BST deadline for the US’s blockade of the strait of Hormuz approaches.
Brent crude is 7.5% higher today at $102.31 a barrel.
While there is disappointment that the US-Iran talks broke up last weekend, there is also some optimism that the ceasefire announced last week is holding.
Paul Diggle, chief economist, at Aberdeen, says:
double quotation markFor all that it is in risk-off mode this morning, the market is arguably still taking a “glass half full” interpretation of the outlook.
Perhaps a single round of talks should never have been expected to yield immediate results. The progress was the in-person talks happening at all.
The US blockade may bring not just economic pressure on Iran, but also diplomatic pressure from China (the destination of a large share of Gulf energy exports, including what had still been flowing from Iran). China apparently played an important part in pressuring Iran to the negotiations last week.
The ceasefire itself is still holding for now, although it’s obviously extremely fragile.
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Union: Make UK public transport free to help with cost of living squeeze
UK transport and travel union TSSA is calling on the government to take immediate action to help the public with the jump in the cost of living due to the Iran war.
This includes making public transport free at the point of use for the next year.
TSSA general secretary Maryam Eslamdoust explains:
double quotation mark“Yet again Donald Trump’s recklessness over Iran is having an effect of world oil prices which will in turn hit our communities here at home really hard.
“We are facing into a major economic crisis of Washington’s making at a time in which many people are already really struggling with the cost of living.
“Not only should our government be carrying out the work of diplomacy to help find a solution to the conflict but it’s vital that Ministers act without delay to take serious measures to help people here at home.
“Making public transport free at the point of use for the next twelve months would provide people with the assistance they need and also act as a huge economic stimulus.
“Not only that, but the Prime Minister should also convene regular COBRA meetings examining the full range of measures which can help people with their bills and consider setting up a national Cost of Living Taskforce.”
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Although Goldman Sachs has beaten profit forecasts, its share are down 4.5% in pre-market trading.
Traders could be concerned that Goldman’s revenues from Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) fell by 10% in the first quarter.
Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at investing and trading platform IG, says today’s results have failed to “pique investors’ attention”
double quotation mark“Goldman Sachs has delivered a solid set of numbers, but in this environment ‘solid’ isn’t quite enough to keep investors interested. The strength in equities trading and dealmaking shows that the machine is still firing on all cylinders, yet the drop in FICC revenues is a reminder that this is not a one-way street, especially with markets being buffeted by the Iran war.
After such a strong run in the share price, investors were clearly looking for something exceptional, not just good. The bigger issue is that Goldman’s results feel like a snapshot of a world that may already be fading. With oil prices surging, inflation fears building and recession risks creeping back in, the outlook for dealmaking and capital markets activity becomes far less certain.
In that context, today’s numbers risk being seen as close to peak earnings, and it’s little surprise that investors have opted to take some money off the table.”
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Reuters: US military to enforce blockade in Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, note to seafarers
A map showing the strait of Hormuz. Photograph: Dado Ruvić/Reuters
The US Central Command have told seafarers that the US military will enforce a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz, applied to all vessel traffic regardless of flag.
A note seen by Reuters also confirms that the blockade would come into effect at 1400 GMT today, or 3pm UK time.
The note says:
double quotation mark“Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion, and capture.
“The blockade will not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations.”
The blockade “encompasses the entirety of the Iranian coastline to include but not limited to ports and oil terminals”, the note said, adding that humanitarian shipments including food, medical supplies, and other essential goods would be permitted, subject to inspection.
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Goldman Sachs warns of ‘very complex’ geopolitical landscape, as profits rise
Goldman Sachs has grown its profits in the first quarter of this year, a period which included the first month of the US-Iran war.
The Wall Street titan has reported earnings per common share of $17.55 for the first quarter of 2026, up from $14.12 in the first quarter of 2025 and $14.01 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Goldman’s net earnings rose to $5.63bn for the first quarter to 31 March 31, up from $4.74bn a year ago, while net revenues came in at $17.23bn.
Reuters says:
double quotation markThe heightened volatility across asset classes has pushed up the need for clients to reassess portfolios and hedge downside risks, a practice that typically buoys trading desks at large banks.
The jump in profits was partly due to a 48% jump in investment banking fees, which Goldman says reflected “a significant increase in completed mergers and acquisitions volumes” in the quarter.
Asset & wealth management revenues rose by 10% year-on-year, as an increase in assets under management led to higher fees.
David Solomon, chairman and Ceo of Goldman Sachs, says:
double quotation mark“Goldman Sachs delivered very strong performance for our shareholders this quarter, even as market conditions became more volatile. Our clients continue to depend on us for high quality execution and insights amid the broader uncertainty, and we remain confident in how we’ve positioned our businesses. The geopolitical landscape remains very complex – so disciplined risk management must remain core to how we operate.”
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Updated at 08.01 EDT
Lauren Almeida
The accommodation reservation website Booking.com has suffered a data breach with “unauthorised parties” gaining access to customers’ details.
The platform said it “noticed some suspicious activity involving unauthorised third parties being able to access some of our guests’ booking information”.
“Upon discovering the activity, we took action to contain the issue,” it said. “We have updated the pin number for these reservations and informed our guests.”
The company, which is headquartered in Amsterdam, lists more than 30m accommodation venues around the world and says it connects “millions of travellers” with experiences, transport and places to stay.
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UK petrol and diesel increases ‘have almost ground to a halt’
After rising since the Iran war began, UK petrol and diesel prices finally all-but-stopped increasing today.
The RAC reports that the average price of a litre of diesel is 191.50p today, up from 191.31p on Friday.
Petrol aso rose very slightly to 158.27p a litre, up from 158.16p on Friday.
RAC head of policy Simon Williams says that “while pump prices have technically risen for a record 43 straight days, the increases have almost ground to a halt” after oil fell traded below $100 a barrel last week.
Williams added, though:
double quotation markIf the oil price was to go back up again this week, any hopes of slight forecourt reductions will inevitably disappear.”
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Updated at 06.48 EDT
Physical Forties crude oil hits record high near $150 a barrel
North Sea oil prices have risen to a new record high, as the US plan to blockage the strait of Hormuz triggers a scramble to secure crude supplies.
Reuters has the details:
double quotation markThe price of North Sea Forties crude oil reached a record high near $150 a barrel on Monday as the U.S. plan to blockade the strait of Hormuz added to concern about tight supplies.
The outright price of North Sea Forties crude reached $148.87 a barrel on Monday, LSEG data showed, exceeding its 2008 peak.
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Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt has also argued that if the UK introduces a ‘social tariff’ to help poorer households with their energy bills, other households could stump up the cost.
Hunt told today’s Resolution Foundation event that the UK Treasury is “mindful of our fiscal position”, so it will say “we want the people who are not on the social tariff to have slightly higher bills, to pay for lower bills for people on the social tariff”.
That, he argues, would kill the policy “stone dead”.
Hunt says:
double quotation markIt is definitely politically easier for Rachel Reeves to say ‘this is something I’m going to deal with when I come to the budget in November’.
But if the moment she announces a social tariff, she announces that bills for the 80% are going to go up in order to fund lower bills for the 20% of poorer households, that is a way to kill a policy stone dead from the outcome.
You can’t really duck that because people are going to ask, how are you going to pay for this? And that, I think, is why in the end, the quantum is very, very important. I mean, are we talking about a £5bn package for one year, or are we talking about a £25bn package for five years?
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Updated at 06.00 EDT
Jeremy Hunt: markets wouldn’t allow a repeat of the 2022 energy price cap
Jeremy Hunt, a former Tory chancellor of the exchequer, says Rachel Reeves faces an ‘incredibly challenging’ situation, as the Iran war hits UK living standards.
Hunt, who was chancellor from October 2022 to July 2024, says Resolution Foundation’s new analysis “brought back a few nightmares” for him.
But, when Hunt became chancellor, the energy price cap was predicted to be £4,200; instead, bills were capped it at £2,500 a year, a move that drove up the UK national debt.
Hunt argues that even with all the worries today, the scale of what the UK is facing now is “nothing like 2022”.
double quotation markWe’re talking about potentially a £300 rise in energy bills, not an increase in energy bills by £2,000, or £2,500, a year. So the scale is very, very different at the moment.
Hunt also argues that the markets wouldn’t allow the kind of intervention that he was able to do in 2022.
He says that concerns about the UK’s national debt are higher today:
double quotation markThe markets have noticed that debt interest is now £110bn a year. If you add to that, the unfunded liabilities for civil service and NHS pensions, we pay in tax every year the equivalent of 19p on income tax just to pay for government liabilities, debt, [and] interest.
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Updated at 08.01 EDT
Resolution Foundation: pressure on UK housing costs from Iran war
The Iran war is putting rising pressure on UK housing costs, the Resolution Foundation is warning.
The think tank is presenting its new research on the impact on living standards (see earlier post) at an event in London now.
Jonny Marshall, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation, points out that expectations this year of continued interest rate cuts have faded.
Marshall says:
double quotation markThis is very unwelcome news to the nearly three-quarters of a million households that are set to come off five-year fixed mortgages this financial year.
For a household with a loan of around £220,000, moving off a cheap fix would add about £350 to their housing costs, a rise of more than £100 if that cheap fix had ended at the start of February.
There are also expectations that higher mortgage rates could feed through into rental prices, he adds.
Marshall also pointed out that petrol and diesel prices have jumped rapidly, while food inflation will rise more slowly – it typically takes a year for a food commodity price shock to feed through to the peak of food price inflation.
And with households facing a jump in energy bills this year, Resolution argues that any government support should be targeted at those most likely to struggle with higher costs.
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Updated at 06.04 EDT
Markets dip ‘before Trump inevitably TACOs again’
European stock markets have dropped this morning, but it’s a rather modest sell-off.
Germany’s DAX has dropped by almost 1%, while Spain’s IBEX is down 1.2% and Italy’s FTSE Mib has lost 0.75%.
This mild reaction may indicate that investors aren’t intensely worried about Donald Trump’s threat to close the strait of Hormuz.
As Bill Blain, principal of Wind Shift Capital Advisors, puts it:
double quotation markMore instability forecast before Trump inevitably TACOs again. Markets are getting bored of it – which means the consequences could be even more volatile!
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The US blockage on Iranian ports, which is scheduled to start at 3pm UK time, will be a blow to China, which is a key buyer of Tehran’s oil.
Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK, explains:
double quotation markAfter the ceasefire and move towards peace talks, the failure of negotiations and President Trump’s subsequent decision to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices sharply higher this morning with Brent futures trading north of $100 again.
The US Navy will block the Strait from 10am eastern time today after Washington and Tehran failed to reach agreement over the weekend – I thought we wanted it open!? Brent rose about 8% to clear $103 before paring gains to trade about the $101 mark. Dutch TTF gas jumped about 8% also.
The main thing to consider is China as the main customer of Iranian oil – the blockade appears to be a tool to pressure China to strong arm its strategic partner to hurry up and do a deal. Diplomacy is the continuation of war by other means in this case.
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Updated at 04.08 EDT
UK mortgage rates have dipped slightly today.
The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.89%, down from 5.90% on Friday, data provider Moneyfacts reports.
The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.77%, down from 5.78% at the end of last week.
That follows a drop in borrowing costs at the end of last week, on hopes that last weekend’s peace talks might have delivered progress.
With government borrowing costs a little higher this morning, it’s possible that tomorrow’s Moneyfacts data will show mortgage rates have gone up again!
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Germany will cut taxes on diesel and petrol for two months, chancellor says
Germany is rolling out support for consumers and businesses facing higher motor fuel costs.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced that petrol and diesel taxes will be cut for two months to provide relief to households and businesses hit by the energy shock during the Middle East war.
Merz told a press conference:
double quotation markWe will reduce… the fuel tax on diesel and gasoline by approximately 17 (euro) cents per litre for two months.
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Updated at 06.01 EDT
Julia Kollewe
Rachel Reeves said she would set out a support package this week to help businesses struggling with soaring energy costs as a result of the Iran war.
Like other countries, the UK is exposed to the economic fallout from the Iran war, which has driven oil and gas prices sharply higher on world markets, thereby increasing energy bills and fuel prices for households and businesses.
Crude oil prices spiked to nearly $120 a barrel during the war, but fell below $100 a barrel last week after the US and Iran agreed a temporary ceasefire. However, they are expected to rise again on Monday after the two countries failed to reach a deal to end the war over the weekend.
Writing in the Sunday Times, the UK chancellor said:
double quotation markThe war in Iran will come at a cost to British families and business … We don’t yet know the full scale of those costs, but the immediate priority must be to ensure that the ceasefire holds.
She added:
double quotation markThat is the best protection we have against higher costs at home and at the IMF meetings in Washington this week I will be working with allies on the action we can take to guarantee freedom of navigation, including the Strait of Hormuz, to keep energy supplies moving again.
She and other finance ministers, along with central bankers, are heading to Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s spring meetings starting on Monday.
The UK government had been waiting to see how the conflict evolved before announcing support to households and businesses. It has already pledged to cut some green levies and lower bills for some electricity-intensive companies. Reeves said:
double quotation markThe UK’s manufacturing sector … has faced uncompetitive energy prices for too long.
So later this week I will be setting out the next phase of our plans to boost Britain’s competitiveness. I will also set out the principles that will guide how we support businesses in the months ahead.
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Updated at 06.08 EDT
Higher energy prices will increase the pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy, to prevent a surge in inflation.
This morning, City investors are pricing a roughly 84% chance that the Bank of England raises interest rates twice this year, Reuters reports, up from a 60% chance on Friday.
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