Reform UK success in local elections could endanger national climate targets, report says

Good morning. Seven weeks from today, counting will be taking place for the English local elections and, unless the polls are more wrong than they have ever been before, Reform UK will be celebrating record wins. The commentary will focus on the implications for national politics. But councils have significant powers, and a report today says Reform wins in local government could have a significant impact on climate policy.

We know that Reform UK are opposed to net zero, and they have pledged to cut green subsidies, but there is still some lack of clarity as to exactly what they would do on climate policy more generally. Some Reform UK figures refuse point-blank to acknowledge that human-made global heating is a reality. Others claim they are just opposed to the pace of transition to renewables. But Nigel Farage, the party leader, has a long history of climate change scepticism.

To explore this in more detail, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the LSE has invesgtigated what Reform UK has been doing in the councils it has been running since it won them last May, and it has published its report this morning. Here are the key findings.

double quotation mark• Seven Reform UK-led councils have “scrapped” their climate targets and climate change denial has been expressed by Reform UK councillors in five councils. Some of these councils have removed content about climate change from strategy documents.

• While work related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions continues in these councils, mitigating climate change is no longer explicitly cited as the motivation.

• However, there is variation in how “scrapping net zero” is being implemented, reflecting an apparent divergence of views within the party.

• There is also a lack of clarity in the party’s claims of how “scrapping net zero” has achieved financial savings and how the party defines expenditure on net zero.

• Reform UK is likely to win control of more local authorities in May 2026, including further unitary authorities with responsibilities for planning applications and housing, policy areas of importance to national climate targets.

• National government will face greater challenges in ensuring that local authorities contribute to the delivery of legislative and policy climate goals if Reform UK wins more seats.

This chart sets out what has been happening in the 10 councils where Reform UK has full control.

Photograph: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment

Edward de Quay, one of the analysts who wrote the report, said:

double quotation markIn our study we found that ‘scrapping net zero’ is not only a policy position but a signal of a broader retreat from treating climate change as urgent. This takes the form of both delaying action and outright climate change denial. Voters should be aware that this is the case.

In the upcoming local elections in May, should Reform UK expand its council base, we can expect further retreat from climate action. The government must be alert to this challenge, given the importance of local authorities to the delivery of national climate goals.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Steve Reed, the housing secretary, is on a visit.

10am: Peers resume their debate on the assisted dying bill.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Afternoon: Kemi Badenoch is on a visit in the south of England.

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Updated at 05.56 EDT

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Reform UK’s record in local government shows it ‘doesn’t accept need for evidence-based policymaking’, report says

Here is an extract from the conclusion to the report from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment on Reform UK’s approach to climate change in the councils it runs.

double quotation markThe key finding from this study is that councils led by Reform UK are largely delivering on the party’s pledge to scrap net zero at the local level, and that ”scrapping net zero” is not only a policy position but a signal of a broader retreat from taking climate change seriously. This takes the form of both climate change delay, where commitments are weakened or deferred, and outright climate change denial, where the anthropogenic origin of climate change is rejected. Voters should be aware that this is the case, despite the party’s lack of an explicit position on climate change.

The promotion of climate change denial by both its national leadership and many of its local councillors indicates that Reform UK is failing to recognise the growing risks the British public face from climate change impacts, including rising sea levels, heavier rainfall and more intense heatwaves. It also demonstrates that the party does not accept the need for evidence-based policymaking.

If Reform UK expands its council base in the upcoming local elections, further climate target rollback, the dismantling of scrutiny structures and the withdrawal of voluntary emissions reporting should be expected. Given the vital role local authorities need to play in helping the UK reach its statutory target of net zero emissions by 2050, the government should consider strategic options including incentives to promote progress, rather than assuming voluntary action, and making standardised emissions reporting mandatory, to track progress of programmes that reduce emissions.