Gas prices jumped to four-year highs and oil prices rose again after an escalation of attacks by Israel and Iran on gasfields heightened fears of prolonged disruption to international energy supplies.
QatarEnergy told Reuters on Thursday that Iran had damaged facilities that produced 17% of the state-owned company’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity and that it would take three to five years to repair them.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 10% to $119 a barrel at one point before slipping back to $110 a barrel, a gain of 3.3%. Crude prices have soared by 60% since the US-Israeli war on Iran started on 28 February.
European gas prices jumped, with the Dutch wholesale gas price up 24% at €68 a megawatt hour, the highest since the end of December 2022, before easing back. They have more than doubled since before the war.
UK gas prices have also more than doubled since late February and are likely to drive up household bills. The month-ahead UK wholesale gas price rose by 23% on Thursday morning to 172p a therm, its highest level since August 2022. It remains well below the peak of 800p a therm that was momentarily hit in March 2022.
Traders are responding to the escalation in the Middle East, where Tehran stepped up its attacks on energy facilities, causing significant damage to Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world’s largest LNG facility, in response to Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gasfield.
Oil price chart
The escalation of the war and its effect on oil and gas prices triggered a sharp sell-off across stock markets. Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 3.4%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 2.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 2%.
European markets followed Asia. The UK’s FTSE 100 was down nearly 3% by early afternoon before closing down 2.35% at 10,063 points. Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC were 2.3% and 2.2% lower respectively. Wall Street opened lower.
Donald Trump has threatened to “massively blow up” South Pars if Iran attacks Qatar again. Israel’s decision to target the Iranian gasfield was a significant escalation of the war.
QatarEnergy said Ras Laffan suffered “extensive damage” in Iranian strikes.
Gas price chart
The energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the attacks on Qatar’s LNG hub had fundamentally altered the global gas market outlook, as initial expectations of a two-month disruption at the site were now likely to be exceeded. Each additional month of disruption removes about 1.5% from annual global LNG availability.
The energy company Shell said the attack on Ras Laffan had caused damage to its Pearl GTL (gas-to-liquids) facility. Shell added that the fire was quickly put out, there were no reported injuries and Pearl was now in a “safe state”.
Authorities in Abu Dhabi said they had been forced to shut down operations at its Habshan gas facility and Bab oilfield because of Iranian attacks.
Why gasfield attacks are a major escalation in Iran war – The Latest
Susannah Streeter, the chief investment strategist at the broker Wealth Club, said: “Fears of a sustained energy shock have resurfaced after the escalation in the Iran war sent oil and gas prices soaring. The prospect of a longer, more drawn-out conflict is in sharp focus as both sides ratchet up attacks on energy infrastructure.
“Warnings that oil could reach $150 a barrel have resurfaced. Israel’s attack on Iran’s gasfields has prompted retaliatory strikes on facilities in Qatar. Europe in particular is reliant on LNG exports from Qatar, as countries have been weaning themselves off dependence on Russia.”
Map of Gulf region
Streeter added: “The conflict is not only highly damaging for economies in the region, with tourism and business activity hit, but the knock-on effects of higher energy prices will have toxic repercussions worldwide.”
The big European airlines including Lufthansa on Thursday said fares would rise if the surge in fuel prices persisted for months. They urged passengers to book early as the industry’s fuel hedging strategies start to unwind.
Thomas Pugh, the chief economist at the consulting firm RSM UK, said higher energy prices could cause so-called second-round inflationary effects, leading to higher wage and price setting.
He said if energy prices were still this high into the summer, those second-round effects “could realistically push inflation towards 5%. At that point, interest rate hikes become much more likely” from the Bank of England.
Instead of rate cuts, money markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rise by July, which would take Bank rate back up to 4%.
Anchored ships are not as safe as thought, said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Photograph: Benoît Tessier/Reuters
Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List Intelligence, said the first confirmed strike on an operational gasfield, by Israel, marked a significant shift. “That escalation expands the risk profile, meaning that the prospect of hits against the entire Middle East Gulf energy and logistics system are now significantly raised. That includes export terminals, offshore infrastructure, anchorages, port approaches, military facilities,” he said.
Meade added that there was a huge buildup of risk and not just for vessels transiting through the strait of Hormuz.
He said anchored ships were not as safe as thought. Some governments – including China, India, Pakistan, Iraq and Malaysia – were in direct contact with Iran to negotiate safe passage. The idea that approval via payments or national affiliation guaranteed safe passage “should be treated with extreme caution”, he said.
