The NFL playoff race is completely wide open. The current Super Bowl favorite (Seahawks at +330) has the sixth-longest odds among all favorites entering the postseason over the past 50 years, according to ESPN Research. One reason for this: a strong field of wild-card teams.
The Rams lost out on the NFC West, but they have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+425 at DraftKings Sportsbook). The Texans won nine straight to end the regular season, and the Bills and 49ers matched Houston’s total of 12 wins. The Packers are the first No. 7 seed to be favored (-1.5) in the wild-card round since the 14-team format was introduced in 2020, and the Chargers have the second-best odds (+3.5) for any No. 7 seed in that same time span.
So, which of these wild-card teams could run the table? I ranked all six based on who I think has the best chance to go on the road and win the Super Bowl from a wild-card seeding. Then, I provided keys to victory — one offensive and one defensive — for each of those six teams to spring their playoff runs. For those winning blueprints, I focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Additionally, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) provided odds for each team to win this weekend and hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Let’s get into all of that, starting with my No. 1 wild-card team and what it needs to do to win this weekend.
Jump to a team:
BUF | GB | HOU
LAC | LAR | SF
Wild-card game: at Carolina on Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
FPI chances to defeat Carolina: 74.9%
FPI chances to win the Super Bowl: 14.8%
Offensive key to victory: Get motion/movement in the run game.
In Week 13 versus the Panthers, running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 153 rushing yards, and 125 of those yards came off motion/movement before the snap. This allowed the Rams to gain numbers on perimeter schemes, while moving the tight ends pre-snap to insert into the front.
Sure, the Rams’ passing game with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and a healthy Davante Adams will play a big role here, but the foundational approach of coach Sean McVay’s offense centers on the rushing attack. The Rams love to take edges and create positive blocking angles. And they can manufacture schematic advantages again against Carolina with movement before the snap.
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Defensive key to victory: Limit the Panthers’ short-yardage shot plays.
Carolina quarterback Bryce Young connected on two explosive-play touchdown throws in Week 13, both on fourth-and-short situations facing man coverage. On the first touchdown, Young hit Jalen Coker on a fade ball from a reduced split to create more room off the release. On the second, Young found Tetairoa McMillan downfield on a deep crosser. Both plays were designed to target single-high man free, and the post safety didn’t impact either throw.
It’s not like we expect the Rams to play those situations differently, as even zone-heavy teams would play man and challenge on third or fourth down with less than 5 yards to go. But let’s see if L.A. defensive coordinator Chris Shula mixes his post-snap looks in similar situations Saturday. He could bring simulated pressures and use the safety to top vertical releases.
Wild-card game: at Pittsburgh on Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
FPI chances to defeat Pittsburgh: 54.7%
FPI chances to win the Super Bowl: 6.1%
Offensive key to victory: Scheme for man coverage in scoring position.
When the Texans have the ball in the low to high red zone (the goal line to 25-yard line), they should see heavy man coverage from Pittsburgh’s defense (69.8% of coverage snaps this season). This Steelers have held opposing quarterbacks to a red zone completion percentage under 50% in man coverage this season but have given up 18 touchdown passes there — eighth most in the league.
This is an area of the field where Houston can look for favorable matchups using formation and alignment. We know wide receiver Nico Collins can isolate from multiple spots on the field, and I would look for in-breaking concepts with the ball in the low red zone. Plus, rookie Jayden Higgins has shown a strong catch radius in the end zone this season.
Defensive key to victory: Take away the quick out-breakers against quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers wants to get the ball out quick, as he leads the league in average time to pass this season (2.59 seconds). He is going to target the underneath out/flat areas of the field, as 31.5% of his throws this season were on short out-breakers. Rodgers likes to take the speed outs and benches, while targeting running back Kenneth Gainwell on quick arrows or flats.
Here, the Texans can take those throws away with scheme and the talent they have at cornerback. By playing more Cover 2, both Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter (assuming he’s healthy) can patrol the flats. This should eliminate Rodgers’ ability to take the quick outs while also positioning a safety over the top of wide receiver DK Metcalf, who is returning from a two-game suspension.
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Wild-card game: at Jacksonville on Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
FPI chances to defeat Jacksonville: 51.5%
FPI chances to win the Super Bowl: 5.9%
Offensive key to victory: Feature running back James Cook III and the rushing attack.
This Jaguars run defense is legit, as Jacksonville has allowed a league-low 85.6 rushing yards per game this season. Plus, the Jaguars have given up only 34 rushes of 10 or more yards, the third fewest in the NFL. However, Buffalo can still lean on Cook in coordinator Joe Brady’s game plan if it is selective in the schemes it runs.
I went through all of the 10-plus-yard rushes that the Jaguars gave up on the tape, and opposing offenses did have some success on duo, inside zone and outside zone schemes. These plays put Cook in a position to take off vertically while also providing cutback avenues. And Cook has been productive this season on all three types. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry on duo, 4.8 on inside zone and 5.9 on outside zone.
Defensive key to victory: Cut the in-breaking routes in coach Liam Coen’s system.
If you watch the Jaguars’ offense, Trevor Lawrence has thrown with rhythm this season on in-breakers. It’s a big part of the Jags’ offense, especially with receivers Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington on the other end.
But I also think the Bills have the foundational coverages to limit this area of the field from their split-safety alignments. Buffalo has played two-high coverage on 52.9% of opponent dropbacks this season; it can use its safeties to cut on in-breakers and take the throwing lane away. And we could also see more two-man coverage here with the safeties driving top-down on the ball to reduce the window for Lawrence.
Wild-card game: at Philadelphia on Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
FPI chances to defeat Philadelphia: 44.6%
FPI chances to win the Super Bowl: 4.7%
Offensive key to victory: Lean on tight end George Kittle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk in the run game.
The Eagles have allowed an average of 141.2 rushing yards per game over their past six matchups, which is something the 49ers can take advantage of Sunday. Specifically, coach Kyle Shanahan can use both Kittle and Juszczyk as “move” pieces in his run script to clear daylight for running back Christian McCaffrey.
Here, the 49ers can create an advantage with shifts, motions and post-snap angles to scheme cutback lanes and numbers at the point of attack. That would create enough of a runway for McCaffrey to get through the linebacker level of the defense, forcing Philly’s safeties to tackle from their split-field alignments.
Remember, Kittle and Juszczyk are able to create matchup advantages as blockers, too. And I believe Shanahan will play to their versatility as they displace defenders in the run game.
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Defensive key to victory: Crash the edges to disrupt running back Saquon Barkley.
Niners defensive coordinator Robert Saleh can borrow from the Bills’ defensive tape in Week 17 versus the Eagles. Barkley rushed for only 3.9 yards per carry in that contest, finishing with three negative plays. Buffalo selectively crashed (or slanted) Philly’s edges, which forced the ball to bounce outside where second-level defenders were waiting.
Yes, this is just a small or nuanced aspect of how Saleh can disrupt the Eagles’ rushing plan. But it’s there on the tape, and it could give the 49ers an edge in early down-and-distance situations.
Wild-card game: at New England on Sunday, 8 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
FPI chances to defeat New England: 46.9%
FPI chances to win the Super Bowl: 4.2%
Offensive key to victory: Move the pocket with quarterback Justin Herbert on first downs.
Given the current state of the Chargers’ offensive line and the number of sacks Herbert has taken this season (54), I would be aggressive with my first-down playcalling and move the pocket. That means more play-action and boot concepts, forcing the opponent pass rush to move laterally off the backfield action.
This season, Herbert has attempted only 30 passes on boot concepts or designed rollouts. But he has completed 80% of those throws at 8.8 yards per attempt. Let’s give Herbert more three-level reads in Foxborough, while also setting up some vertical throws off play-action.
Defensive key to victory: Use dedicated “brackets” based on game situation.
If I were Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, the two players I would scheme for in this game are wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry. The Chargers have to limit their ability to uncover, forcing quarterback Drake Maye to go somewhere else with the ball on third downs and inside the red zone.
Dedicated double-teams or “brackets” are the answer here. The Chargers can use a safety to cover any inside release from Diggs, taking away the short in-breakers and crossers. Henry must be accounted for in the red zone, preventing him from roaming free in the middle of the field. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. pressed up on Henry, with inside help from depth.
Wild-card game: at Chicago on Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Prime Video
FPI chances to defeat Chicago: 55.9%
FPI chances to win the Super Bowl: 5.4%
Offensive key to victory: Win the man-beaters against the Bears’ secondary.
In Week 14 at Lambeau Field, Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 9 of 13 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns when Chicago played man coverage. Some of those were explosive plays, too, with receivers separating from defensive backs on over routes.
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Yes, the Bears could get a boost in the slot with nickelback Kyler Gordon expected to return from a groin injury. But there will be matchups that put Love in a position to distribute a “runner’s ball,” making it easier for his receivers to pick up yards after the catch. And that’s where the Packers can cash in versus a Bears defense that’s allowing a completion percentage of 65.7% in man coverage, the highest in the league.
Defensive key to victory: Manufacture a pass rush on quarterback Caleb Williams.
Since edge rusher Micah Parsons suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 15, the Packers have totaled just three sacks. Their pass rush win rate dropped from 39.7% to 33.3%. The numbers show a steep decline without Parsons.
What has been the counter for Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley? Increasing the pressure. The Packers held a blitz rate of 20.2% with Parsons, which ranked 28th in the league. But without Parsons over the past three games, it spiked to 28.4%.
Look for that to stick versus Chicago, as Hafley must manufacture ways to speed up the internal clock of Williams. The goal here is to force the second-year quarterback to throw from inside the pocket, which limits his natural playmaking ability outside of structure.
