Roadkills are gold in the chase for conference titles, and they might be everything in a Big 12 that has six teams with legitimate shots to hang a banner. No. 10 BYU is one of those Scary Six, and the Cougars are getting thrown right into the fire by the Big 12’s schedule-makers with Saturday’s opening tilt on the road against a Kansas State club that could desperately use a signature win.
AJ Dybantsa and PJ Haggerty are the two titans in this one. Dybantsa sits second in America in scoring, averaging over 23 points per game. Haggerty (22.9 ppg), meanwhile, checks in third nationally. These two are destined to go toe-to-toe for the Big 12 scoring title.
Dybantsa might be the only person who was hesitant to celebrate New Year’s Day because he had December to remember. The ballyhooed freshman had one of the best months in basketball history. He became the first Division I or NBA player in the last 30 seasons to have a calendar month averaging at least 25.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists while shooting over 65% from the field for an undefeated team, according to OptaSTATS. Legitimately ludicrous stuff from the mean-muggin’ stud.
He can’t be quite as dominant in Big 12 play … right? We’re about to find out.
BYU vs. Kansas State: Need to know
Can Kansas State check AJ Dybantsa? Defense has been a major red flag for Kansas State all year, but especially against big wings. California’s Chris Bell (27 points), Creighton’s Josh Dix (18), Nebraska’s Pryce Sandfort (21) and Bowling Green’s Sam Towns (27) have all had eye-popping days against this K-State defense. It checks out on tape. With Mobi Ikegwuruka sidelined with a leg injury, Kansas State really has no true wing stopper on the roster. That’s a scary thought ahead of a matchup against Dybantsa, who is the best pure wing in all of college basketball. I’d expect Nate Johnson and CJ Jones to get cracks at trying to slow down the BYU star, but the 6-9 Dybantsa is so much bigger than both Johnson (6-3) and Jones (6-5). If Kansas State isn’t careful, Dybantsa could get to his patented midrange fadeaway whenever he wants over smaller defenders. Dybantsa is averaging a sparkling 1.4 points per possession on post-ups. Kansas State better have a sound defensive plan because it doesn’t have the personnel to handle Dybantsa one-on-one without sending help.
Can PJ Haggerty get Keba Keita in foul trouble? BYU has been a top-three (!) defense in America this year when Keba Keita is on the floor, per hoop-explorer. The chiseled big man is a true difference-maker on that end, but BYU’s defense drops off significantly (allowing 13 more points per 100 possessions) when Keita is off the floor. Kansas State’s PJ Haggerty is one of the elite foul-drawing guards in the country going up against a BYU defense that has been excellent at defending without fouling (11th-best rate, per KenPom). What gives? If he can get Keita a couple early fouls, the scales start tipping in K-State’s direction in a hurry. Keep a close eye on Kennard Davis’ impact as well. The big, strong wing has been an outstanding defender for BYU. He should get the first crack at Haggerty. If he can chest up and keep Haggerty out of the paint, that could keep Keita out of harm’s way, too.
Second-half Cougs: BYU has been the best second-half team in the country. Its +43.9 net rating in the second half is simply overwhelming and rates in the 100th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics. Miami, Dayton and Clemson all learned just how hard it is to hold a lead against BYU, and the Cougars nearly erased a 20-point deficit in their lone loss to UConn back in mid-November. I wouldn’t expect this stat to stick all year, but there’s proof of concept that this club believes it can claw out of every hole. However, Kevin Young would likely prefer to quit digging said holes … starting Saturday against Kansas State, because if K-State jumps out to an early advantage, Bramlage can feel overwhelming in a jiffy.
Where to watch BYU vs. Kansas State live
Date: Saturday, Jan. 3 | Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
Location: Bramlage Coliseum — Manhattan, Kansas
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App
Streaming on Paramount+ Premium
BYU vs. Kansas State prediction, picks
BYU has had 12 days off to enjoy Christmas break and sink its teeth into this matchup. If it wins, time off will be dubbed a good thing for rest and relaxation. If it loses, I’m sure the long layoff will be blamed by a few. Ultimately, this game will be decided by transition defense. Kansas State loves to push the pace in transition for quick buckets. BYU hasn’t been one to run away from a track meet, so it better build a wall against Haggerty and recover to the shooters.
But the worst unit in this game is easily Kansas State’s defense. Dybantsa has too many guys he can pick at to find mismatches. BYU’s offense is so good at finding the hot spots with Richie Saunders or Rob Wright, too. Even on the road, I think BYU has four of the best five players on the floor at all times. Kansas State can hang around because of the quick-strike transition scoring and Haggerty’s individual brilliance, but BYU has too many edges schematically, coaching-wise and talent-wise to ignore. Pick: Kansas State +7.5
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