Keir Starmer will begin his second full year in Downing Street as one of the least popular ever prime ministers – a spectacularly rapid reversal from his landslide election win of just 18 months ago.
Yet Starmer believes this will be the year things start to improve for his beleaguered premiership and fractious Labour party.
His chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, recently told special advisers gathered in Downing Street that 2026 would be “the year of proof” when Labour begins to show voters that the change they voted for in 2024 is being delivered.
Starmer will start the year with a speech on the cost of living, flagging recent interest rate cuts and the abolition of levies from energy bills as signs that life is becoming more affordable.
But he faces a number of potential pitfalls in the year ahead that could end up defining his premiership.
1. Changes to Send
Bridget Phillipson has been drawing up plans for several months to change the way children with extra needs are treated in the school system, and she is due to publish them in the form of a white paper in the new year.
The education secretary is under pressure to come up with a cheaper and more efficient way to run the system, given the financial pressures caused by the recent rise in the number of children with conditions such as autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.
Parents’ groups are concerned that Phillipson could do away with the system of education, health and care plans (EHCPs), which grant children the legal right to additional support and are often cumbersome to secure and costly to manage.
Labour backbenchers say privately they are willing to rebel on the issue if the changes look as if they are aimed at saving money rather than improving the way the system is run.
A repeat of last year’s welfare rebellion, which led to the government backing down over proposed cuts to disability benefits, would be another major political blow for Starmer.
2. Local and regional elections
The moment of maximum danger for the prime minister will come in May when voters in Scotland and Wales will elect their devolved administrations and local elections will be held in parts of England including London.
Labour and the Conservatives are each expected to take heavy losses in those elections, with Labour officials worried their party could finish third in Wales and in Scotland.
Such a result, coupled with losses in London councils, could be enough to trigger a leadership contest against Starmer – though the lack of an obvious single challenger could yet save his job.
Before that, Starmer and his advisers are planning a new year offensive against Reform UK and its leader, Nigel Farage, in which they will label the populist party as “far right” and warn about the consequences of electing it to the national government.
3. King’s speech
Starmer is already plotting his post-local election comeback, including a plan to prorogue parliament and return for a new session with a new king’s speech.
That package of legislation is likely to include Phillipson’s Send measures, a new immigration bill, changes to the House of Lords and long-awaited changes to the leasehold system, including an end to new flats being sold as leasehold.
The prime minister is hoping the new bills will help breathe fresh life into his government and give MPs a clear sense of direction for the following 12 months.
4. Managing Donald Trump
Arguably the greatest success of Starmer’s premiership so far has been his deft handling of foreign affairs, particularly the combustible US president.
Next year promises to be a crunch one in US-UK relations as Starmer attempts to finalise negotiations over trade agreements while also making sure Ukraine is not left stranded by attempts in Washington and Moscow to stitch together a peace deal.
Starmer wants to agree a technology deal with the US that would enable closer collaboration on AI and quantum computing, but talks have been hit by last-minute objections from US officials over unrelated trade complaints, including British food safety standards.
Helping the prime minister during this sensitive year will be the incoming ambassador to Washington, Christian Turner, a career diplomat who brings with him experience from the Middle East, north Africa and Pakistan.
5. Single-sex spaces guidance
Ministers have still not approved official guidance from the Equality and Human Rights Commission on access to single-sex public spaces and are now likely to do so in 2026.
The guidance is required because of a supreme court ruling in April saying the legal definition of a woman should be based on biological sex, and it is expected to reflect interim advice that transgender people should not be allowed to use toilets reserved for the gender they live as.
The government’s decision on approving the ECHR’s recommendations is likely to prove a flashpoint, given that trans rights campaigners and some inside the commission criticised the interim advice as overly literal.
