Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Javonte Williams at this point). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
MUST-STARTS: Dak Prescott, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb
STARTS: Javonte Williams, Terry McLaurin, Jake Ferguson (low-end No. 1 TE)
FLEX: Chris Rodriguez Jr. (non-PPR)
SITS: Josh Johnson, Deebo Samuel, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Cowboys DST, Commanders DST
The Minnesota defense has been on an unbelievable run (ZERO passing touchdowns allowed in its past six games/155 pass attempts) and happens to have a rich recent history of blitzing Goff. However, Goff overcame heavy pass rush pressure in each of his past two games against good defenses and spiked each for 31-plus Fantasy points. He also has three instances in his five meetings against Brian Flores’ Vikings defense where he’s posted at least 22 Fantasy points in spite of his constant blitzing, including Week 9 this season (23.4). Goff’s worst games against the Vikings have come in run-rampant efforts from the Lions, a definite possibility given Jahmyr Gibbs’ potential and the Minnesota run defense (4.5 yards per rush allowed over its past four games, excluding garbage time). The worry I have is that the Vikings offense will sputter with undrafted rookie Max Brosmer at quarterback and two first-string offensive linemen out for this game. Their implied team total is 18 points. In four games when the Lions held opponents to 21 or fewer points this year, Goff has averaged 30.3 attempts with only one game over 16.7 Fantasy points. At minimum, I wouldn’t expect a big game from Goff, and that means lowering expectations for his receivers a little bit, too.
MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff (low-end No. 1 QB), Jameson Williams, Aaron Jones
FLEX: Justin Jefferson, David Montgomery (non-PPR)
SITS: Max Brosmer, Jordan Addison, Josh Oliver, Isaac TeSlaa, Ross Dwelley, Vikings DST, Lions DST
In their first game with nothing to play for, the Chiefs pass rush blitzed on 48.4% of Cam Ward’s dropbacks, but got pressure just 22.6% of the time and sacked him twice versus what’s been a mostly bad Titans O-line. That’s not good, and it’s not a new problem for Kansas City’s defense since they’ve underwhelmed most weeks, save for matchups against bad offensive lines. Denver is fourth-best in pass rush pressure allowed and first in sack rate allowed. That’s a good omen for Bo Nix, who began last week throwing really well but toward halftime threw erratically, then pressed when down two scores and ultimately fell into a disappointing stat line despite 47 pass attempts. Nix has never been good when under pressure, but this shouldn’t be one of those games. In fact, there’s potential the Broncos regroup and aim to build some confidence through the air, especially since the scoreboard should be in their favor given the absences in Kansas City’s offense. I doubt it’ll be like Week 18 last year when the Chiefs rested a bunch of their starters, and Nix threw four touchdowns, but I wouldn’t rule out a 250-2-0 stat line from Nix either.Â
STARTS: Bo Nix, R.J. Harvey (No. 1 RB), Courtland Sutton, Travis Kelce (low-end No. 1 TE), Broncos DST
FLEX: Troy Franklin
SITS: All Chiefs other than Kelce, Marvin Mims, Evan Engram, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie
Justin Herbert was blitzed on 54.5% of his dropbacks at Dallas last week and wasn’t sacked once. Some of that is on the Cowboys pass rush just not playing well, but most of it is on Herbert evading defenders, keeping his eyes downfield, and making some awesome throws. He’s capable of it in any matchup, but the step-up in competition from Dallas to Houston is large — especially since Houston’s cornerbacks have played really well all year and will cover better than how Dallas did last week. It makes Herbert a very risky Fantasy consideration given how he’s fared behind his depleted O-line in five of his past six (16.8 or fewer Fantasy points in every matchup except Dallas). Also, 11 of 15 quarterbacks against the Texans all season have posted 20.1 or fewer Fantasy points, including single-digits for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, under 12 points to Trevor Lawrence twice, and under 16 points to Matthew Stafford.
There’s one other factor that could impact Herbert: his own run game. Omarion Hampton pulled even with Kimani Vidal in snap rate last week before Vidal got hurt, then Hampton essentially became a workhorse and did very well. The Texans run defense is very good statistically on the ground, but they have some liabilities at linebacker, at D-tackle, and at strong safety that could extend gains for Hampton much like Ashton Jeanty had last week. Hampton has also seen a target on three of 11 routes he’s run in his past three games when Herbert’s been pressured, which is a really high concentration of targets and a sign that Herbert looks to him to bail him out of pressure. As long as Vidal is out, Hampton qualifies as a very good starting option based on volume.
Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman is suspended this week and next week. When he was out for the Bolts in Weeks 2 through 6, they gave up an average of 5.1 yards per carry, an explosive run rate of 11.5%, and five RB rushing touchdowns. When Perryman came back in Week 7 and through Week 16, the Chargers tightened up to 3.5 yards per carry, a 5.4% explosive run rate, and just two rushing touchdowns to RBs. Backup linebacker Troy Dye has been a liability for almost every game during the stretch Perryman missed, and he figures to be the replacement this week against the Texans. You could almost envision one of Woody Marks or Jawhar Jordan breaking a long run because of a missed tackle. But which one? And will Houston’s O-line down starting tackles Aireontae Ersery and Trent Brown make things much tougher on both of them? These questions keep both backs in the low-end flex range, especially since it’s been clear that Houston doesn’t mind using as many as four running backs from game to game.
MUST STARTS: Nico Collins
STARTS: Omarion Hampton (especially if Vidal is out), Ladd McConkey, Dalton Schultz, Texans DST, Chargers DST
FLEX: Quentin Johnston
SITS: Justin Herbert (high-end No. 2 QB), C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks (desperation RB), Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, Jawhar Jordan, Oronde Gadsden II, Keenan Allen
Tyler Huntley has been on and off the field a bunch since 2020, mostly for the Ravens but for the Dolphins in 2024, too. In his career, Huntley has helped two wide receivers get over 15 PPR points (Tyreek Hill in 2024, Rashod Bateman in 2021). Zay Flowers’ career-best game with Huntley is 14.1 in Week 8 this year, followed by 11.5 in a half last week against the Pats. However, there have been 13 instances of a tight end getting at least 10.2 PPR points from Huntley, but none in 2025. Not that we’re trusting a Ravens tight end anyway, especially since Green Bay’s only allowed six tight ends to notch 10 PPR points this season. Their heavy zone coverages have done a good job of limiting big plays from not just tight ends, but everybody. Caleb Williams was locked down for the first 58 minutes of the game before coming unglued last week — not something we should expect from Huntley. All of this is to say that Flowers is only startable because of the usage he’s earned over the past few weeks, not because of some kind of exceptional matchup and certainly not because of the quarterback. He feels more like a high-end flex than a stud No. 2 receiver.
MUST STARTS: Derrick Henry
STARTS: Josh Jacobs (No. 2 RB), Packers DST
FLEX: Zay Flowers, Christian Watson (low-end flex)
SITS: Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley, Emanuel Wilson, Mark Andrews (desperation TE), Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, DeAndre Hopkins, Rashod Bateman, Keaton Mitchell, Isaiah Likely, Luke Musgrave, Ravens DST
Nothing really changed with Kenneth Walker’s role last week — he still took a backseat to Zach Charbonnet in snap share and only had two more carries (and one more touch) than Charbonnet in the game. He just did a lot more with the work he got. Walker deserves credit for displaying quicker feet and decisiveness, but I don’t think it means he’s suddenly going to go back to being Seattle’s feature RB and displace Charbonnet. No one’s complaining about the matchup this week as the Panthers have let up 4.9 yards per rush to running backs in their past four, complete with a 10.8% explosive rush rate allowed and a whopping five rushing scores. There’s room here for both backs to be good, albeit on limited volume, because they’ll share so much. Charbonnet has the edge on scoring because of his consistent opportunities near the goal line.
On the season, Tetairoa McMillan’s highest target per route run rates have come when Bryce Young isn’t pressured (27.6%) and when McMillan’s gone up against man-to-man coverage (29%). The one-on-one coverage isn’t likely — Seattle plays a lot of zone coverage — but time in the pocket is possible. Seattle’s pass rush has sort of waned over the last month, only delivering a good dose of pressure last week against the Rams, but failing to sack or create turnovers of Matthew Stafford. The Panthers offensive line hasn’t been pretty, but a return of Ickey Ekwonu at left tackle would be huge. That would give Young a little more time to fire downfield to McMillan, who may see some inferior coverage given some injuries in Seattle’s secondary. Tack on the likely game script of the Panthers either chasing points or playing in a competitive game, and McMillan can be started as a decent No. 2 receiver.
And a quick fact: Excluding garbage time, Seattle has not allowed a running back rush of 12-plus yards in five straight games, and in that span, just three runs went even 10 yards, and only Blake Corum scored on them. This defense travels and will cause all sorts of problems for the Panthers running backs on the ground. It’s going to be really hard to start Rico Dowdle or Chuba Hubbard with any confidence, especially since they split the carries 60-40 last week in favor of Dowdle; Hubbard played more on third downs, along with both snaps inside the 10. Dowdle has 12.4 or fewer PPR points in four straight games, Hubbard has 8.3 or fewer in six of his past seven.
MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
STARTS: Tetairoa McMillan, Kenneth Walker III (low-end No. 2 RB), Seahawks DST
FLEX: Zach Charbonnet, Rico Dowdle
SITS: Sam Darnold, Bryce Young, Jalen Coker (desperation WR), Chuba Hubbard, A.J. Barner, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, Panthers DST
MUST-STARTS: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Trey McBride
STARTS: Jacoby Brissett (top-10 QB), Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Michael Wilson
FLEX: Michael Carter, Marvin Harrison Jr. (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: Mike Gesicki, Elijah Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, Samaje Perine, Emari Demercado, Bengals DST, Cardinals DST
If the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday night, then the Steelers will have clinched the AFC North division and likely lock into the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. It would mean the result of their game in Cleveland is meaningless. Mike Tomlin said he “may” consider resting starters if the Ravens lose, but his history suggests the Steelers will play healthy younger starters even if they can’t improve their playoff seeding. You can be sure that the Steelers won’t put many offensive wrinkles out there for potential playoff opponents to see, which could stunt any numbers that come from specific gameplans.
Against maybe any other opponent, I’d caution against the Steelers running backs, who truly benefited from a terrible Lions run defense last week. But the Browns run defense has been trounced to the tune of 5.5 yards per rush and seven total touchdowns in their past three, and the Steelers have no reason to get away from their newfound dual backfield. It keeps both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell as starting options — assuming the Steelers have something to play for.
STARTS: Jaylen Warren, Harold Fannin Jr., Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers DSTÂ
SITS: Shedeur Sanders, Aaron Rodgers, all Steelers WRs and TEs, Raheim Sanders, Jerry Jeudy, Isaiah Bond, Trayveon Williams, Browns DST, DK Metcalf
MUST STARTS: Jonathan Taylor
STARTS: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce (low-end No. 2 WR), Tyler Warren, Brenton Strange (borderline TE), Jaguars DST
FLEX: Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington (PPR)Â
SITS: Philip Rivers, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman (desperation WRs), Ameer Abdullah, LeQuint Allen, Colts DST
MUST-STARTS: De’Von Achane
STARTS: Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Buccaneers DST
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin
SITS: Baker Mayfield, Quinn Ewers, Darren Waller (desperation TE), Sean Tucker, Rachaad White, Malik Washington, Jaylen Wright, Cade Otton, Dolphins DST
STARTS: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson (as long as TreVeyon Henderson is out), Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Patriots DST
FLEX: Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Mack Hollins (low-end flex)
SITS: Brady Cook, John Metchie III, Isaiah Williams, Jets DST
STARTS: Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Tony Pollard (low-end No. 2 RB), Saints DST
FLEX: Taysom Hill, Tyjae Spears
SITS: Tyler Shough (desperation QB), Cam Ward, Chimere Dike, Elic Ayomanor, Chig Okonkwo, Audric Estime, Evan Hull, Titans DST
STARTS: Ashton Jeanty
FLEX: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson
SITS: Jaxson Dart, Geno Smith, Tre Tucker, Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary, Jack Bech, Michael Mayer, Raiders DST, Giants DST
MUST-STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
STARTS: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST
FLEX: Khalil Shakir
SITS: Dalton Kincaid, Tank Bigsby, Josh Palmer, Bills DST
MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
STARTS: Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams, Jauan Jennings, D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore
FLEX: Kyle Monangai (non-PPR)
SITS: Colston Loveland, Demarcus Robinson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Brian Robinson Jr., 49ers DST, Bears DST
If the Seahawks beat the Panthers and if the 49ers beat the Bears on Sunday, the Rams would be locked into a wild-card spot and would have no motivation to play this week or next week. It’s especially noteworthy because Sean McVay has had no qualms about resting starters in the past, but that was just for the final week of the regular season. I imagine even in this scenario, the Rams would play their starters for a good portion of the game since they have game preparations in place, but they might not reveal any new quirks or designs that potential playoff opponents could plan for. This wouldn’t be enough to bench any Rams players before Monday, but I might want to think through some options just in case. Example: If I had Stafford, I’d want Kirk Cousins on my bench, or if I had the Rams DST, I might either pass on them or have the Falcons DST in case all the starters were ruled inactive before the game.
MUST-STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson
STARTS: Kyren Williams, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Rams DST
FLEX: Blake Corum
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Allgeier, Konata Mumpfield, Xavier Smith, Terrance Ferguson, Darnell Mooney, Falcons DST
