Fans who have been waiting for Jake Paul’s boxing career to come crashing down may get their wish on Friday night when the social media influencer-turned-boxer faces the biggest test of his career in the form of two-time unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua (Netflix, 8 p.m. ET).
Paul’s career started off as little more than a sideshow, stopping fellow influencer KSI in a white-collar exhibition before knocking out another influencer, AnEsonGib, in his pro debut. Paul’s second pro fight saw him score a viral knockout of former NBA star Nate Robinson on the undercard of the highly-watched event headlined by an exhibition between Mike Tyson and Roy Jones Jr.
Paul then turned to facing a series of former UFC fighters, defeating Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley (twice) and Anderson Silva. Silva was the only of Paul’s first five opponents who had any professional boxing experience, leading to calls for Paul to “face a real boxer.”
Paul did just that in his seventh pro fight, and it resulted in his first loss as Tommy Fury took a split decision win in a fight that saw Paul score a knockdown but ultimately fail to be active enough to win over two of the three ringside judges.
Jake Paul faces his toughest test to date as he makes a calculated business decision against Anthony Joshua
Brian Campbell
After defeating former UFC star Nate Diaz, Paul scored back-to-back knockouts over club-level fighters before stopping another former UFC fighter and current BKFC star, Mike Perry.
Paul then faced 57-year-old Mike Tyson in a shameless fight that saw Tyson unable to do much of anything while Paul carried the fight to the judges’ scorecards. Another win over an aging former world champion followed as Paul took a decision win over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Looking at that resume, you can see a pattern of Paul facing almost exclusively smaller, older and/or completely inexperienced boxers.
That will not be the case on Friday, when Paul faces a much larger man in the 6-foot-6 Joshua, a 2012 Olympic gold medalist and two-time unified heavyweight champion of the world.
“Yeah, 100%. This is the Giants vs the Patriots 2007. I mean, the list goes on, but the odds are stacked against me,” Paul said at the final press conference. “There’s no sporting teams in history that have gone together where it’s this big of a difference in terms of skill, experience, resume, height, weight, etc. So this is going to be the biggest upset in the history of sports and you guys get to witness it.”
While Joshua is past his absolute prime, he is not so far removed as to not be capable of competing with the best heavyweights in the world.
After a 15-0 start to his pro career, Joshua knocked out Charles Martin to capture the IBF heavyweight championship. After two successful defenses of the title, Joshua stopped Wladimir Klitschko to add the WBA belt to his collection. Two fights later, Joshua would grab a third belt, stopping Joseph Parker for the WBO title.
The Parker fight, the 21st of Joshua’s career, was the first time a Joshua opponent made it to the final bell.
In June 2019, Joshua suffered a shocking TKO loss to Andy Ruiz Jr., losing his status as unified champion in the process. The Ruiz upset was one of the biggest in heavyweight boxing history — something Paul fans use as proof that Joshua is a vulnerable fighter, even when heavily favored.
Joshua got his revenge in a rematch with Ruiz, regaining his three world titles. After a single defense, Joshua finally met a fighter who was clearly his superior, losing a September 2021 fight to Oleksandr Usyk and dropping the rematch the following August.
Joshua has won four of his five fights since the Usyk bouts, including a thunderous knockout of former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou, before suffering a brutal knockout loss in an IBF title fight with Daniel Dubois.
While no longer among the elite of the elite, Joshua remains a talented, strong, and large heavyweight and is a fighter unlike any Paul has shared the ring.
“Jake Paul creates a great challenge for me, and he’s got a great mindset for sure,” Joshua said. “Great family, great brother, great person. So yeah, he definitely creates a good challenge for me. But as I said earlier, competition is really good.”
Let’s take a closer look at the rest of the undercard with the latest odds before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.
Joshua vs. Paul fight card, odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Anthony Joshua -1200 vs. Jake Paul +700, heavyweights
- Alycia Baumgardner (c) -1400 vs. Leila Beaudoin +750, unified junior lightweight title
- Anderson Silva -275 vs. Tyron Woodley +210, cruiserweights
- Jahmal Harvey -3500 vs. Kevin Cervantes +1300, junior lightweights
- Cherneka Johnson (c) -900 vs. Amanda Galle +550, undisputed bantamweight title
- Caroline Dubois (c) -3500 vs. Camila Panatta +1300, WBC lightweight title
- Yokasta Valle (c) -1400 vs. Yadira Bustillos +700 . WBC strawweight title
- Avious Griffin -600 vs. Justin Cardona +400, welterweights
- Keno Marley -10000 vs. Diarra Davis Jr. +1800, cruiserweights
Where to watch Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua
- Date: Dec. 19
- Location: Kaseya Center — Miami
- Start time: 8 p.m. ET (Main card)
- How to watch: Netflix (subscription required)
Prediction
Look, what is there to say? If Jake Paul wins, it would be legitimately shocking. It would be a sport-shaking result — and one many would refuse to accept as legitimate, no matter how little sense a fix would make. Joshua is bigger, stronger, more technical, has more power and high-level experience against some of the best fighters in the world. Paul has … fought some guys people know who have all come into the fight with at least some degree of disadvantage.
Anthony Joshua wins this fight 99 times out of 100. Paul’s best trait is his power, and landing one big shot and knocking out Joshua is the way Paul wins that one fight out of 100. It’s just very unlikely, and Paul’s worst defensive traits, such as hanging around the ropes while not throwing punches, leaves him open to Joshua’s power and sharp punching. In reality, every round Paul survives is a win in its own way. Pick: Anthony Joshua via TKO2
Who wins Anthony Joshua vs. Jake Paul on Dec. 19, and which massive longshot prop should you target for a huge payday? Visit SportsLine now to see Josh Nagel’s best bets for the Friday, Dec. 19, heavyweight bout, all from the combat sports specialist who has covered the sport for more than 20 years, and find out.
