The NHS is facing its “worst-case scenario” for flu cases this month across England after the number of people in hospital with the illness increased by 55% in a week.
An average of 2,660 patients a day were in an NHS hospital bed with flu, up from 1,717 last week and the highest ever for this time of year. By comparison, in the same week last year the number of patients in hospital with flu stood at 1,861, compared with 402 in 2023.
Prof Meghana Pandit, the NHS national medical director, said the number of patients in hospital with flu was “extremely high for this time of year”.
“With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year – with staff being pushed to the limit to keep providing the best possible care for patients,” Pandit said.
“NHS staff have pulled out all the stops to vaccinate more people than last year and, with just a week left to ensure maximum immunity from flu for Christmas Day, I would urge anyone eligible for the vaccine to please book an appointment or visit a walk-in site as soon as possible. Vaccination is the best protection against getting potentially very ill and it also helps protect those around you.”
The figures come as health experts said an NHS leader who stated that people with flu symptoms “must wear” a face mask risked causing “confusion” over what the public should do to help stop the spread of the virus.
Dr Francesca Cavallaro, a senior analytical manager at the Health Foundation, said the latest figures showed the NHS was beginning to “feel the first signs of winter”.
Graph showing comparison of the number of hospital beds occupied by flu patients
“These pressures expose the NHS’s fragile balancing act,” Cavallaro said. “The government’s recent budget provided no additional funding to help services maintain essential services and meet stretching performance targets, even as demands continue to rise. This leaves the NHS in a precarious financial position, a recipe for worsening patient care and stalled recovery.”
Meanwhile, separate figures released by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) show that in the week to 7 December, flu hospitalisations had increased to a rate of 10.05 per 100,000, compared to 8.09 per 100,000 the previous week.
The UKHSA also issued an urgent appeal for people to get vaccinated, as it takes up to two weeks following for people to develop a maximum immune response. Vaccine uptake currently stands at 71.7% in all those aged over 65 years, only 35.6% in all pregnant women and 37.4% in those aged under 65 years with one or more long-term health conditions.
These latest vaccination figures also come amid reports that some pharmacies have experienced difficulties in their flu vaccine supplies.
Janet Morrison, the chief executive of Community Pharmacy England, said that while the organisation had received some isolated reports of pharmacies struggling to obtain flu vaccination supplies, “this seems to be very dependent on location; some supplies still appear to be available in some locations, and all pharmacies will be working hard to source extra stock if they need it”.
An NHS spokesperson also confirmed that there is no national shortage of the flu vaccine.
The surge in flu cases is due to a combination of factors, including the circulation of a mutated strain of flu known as H3N2, which according to the UKHSA “typically affect older adults more severely than H1N1 strains, leading to more hospitalisations and deaths, creating further pressure on our NHS this winter.”
Dr Peter Abel, senior lecturer in Biomedical Sciences at the University of Lancashire, added: “This winter is proving dangerous for flu because the main circulating strain contains several new mutations that we haven’t built strong immunity against. It is known as H3N2 ‘subclade K’, which is being called a ‘super flu’ by some due to our bodies’ lack of preparation for it.”
Alongside the increasing pressures the NHS is facing this flu season, demand for A&E services continues to rise. In November there was a record 2.35 million attendances – more than 30,000 higher than the same month last year. Ambulance activity also rose sharply, with 802,525 incidents recorded, an increase of 48,814 on 2023.
Weekly flu numbers in England peaked at 5,408 patients last winter and reached 5,441 over the winter of 2022-23.
