With just four weeks left to play in the regular season, the Pittsburgh Steelers have taken control of the race for the division title in the AFC North.
Thanks to their win over the Ravens on Sunday, the Steelers now have a one-game lead over Baltimore. That might not sound like a lot, but the Steelers are in a great spot: According to our playoff projections from SportsLine, the Steelers have a 73.2% chance of winning the division.
One reason that percentage is so high is because the Steelers currently hold both the head-to-head tiebreaker and the divisional record tiebreaker over the Ravens. Although the Steelers are in control, the Bengals and Ravens are still alive.
Right now, the best part of the AFC North race is that we could still see some chaos down the stretch in the form of a 7-10 WINNING THE DIVISION. That’s right, we could see the NFL’s worst nightmare: A 7-10 team hosting what could be a 13-4 fifth seed in the AFC.
If that actually happened, the NFL would almost certainly reevaluate its seeding process during the offseason. During the offseason, the Lions proposed a new seeding format for the playoffs where each team would be seeded by its winning percentage. In that situation, a 7-10 AFC North team would still get in, but would have to play on the road in the opening round. However, that change didn’t get voted through, which means a 7-10 AFC North team hosting a home playoff game is still theoretically possible this year.
So what would have to happen for a 7-10 team to steal the division title? Let’s take a look, but first, let’s check out the division standings.
Steelers
7-6
3-1
6-3
Ravens
6-7
2-2
4-5
Bengals
4-9
3-1
4-5
Browns (Eliminated)
3-10
0-4
2-7
The Steelers are in first place at 7-6, but they play the Dolphins and Lions over the next two weeks and if they were to lose both of those games, it wouldn’t be completely crazy for an 7-10 team to win the division.
Let’s break down what would have to happen for a 7-10 team to take the AFC North:
- Steelers go 0-4 over final four games: vs. Dolphins (Loss), at Lions (Loss), at Browns (Loss), vs. Ravens (Loss)
- Ravens go 1-3 over final four games: at Bengals (Loss), vs. Patriots (Loss), at Packers (Loss), at Steelers (Win)
- Bengals go 3-1 over final four games: vs. Ravens (Win), at Dolphins (Loss), vs. Cardinals (Win), vs. Browns (Win)
Breakdown: If this scenario played out, the Bengals would win the AFC North at 7-10 because they would finish with the best head-to-head record among the tied clubs (Bengals would be 3-1, Steelers would be 2-2 and the Ravens would be 1-3). If the Bengals were to slip up and go 2-2 or worse over the final four weeks, then the Ravens would win the division at 7-10 over the Steelers thanks to a better record in common games. So the door is still open for either the Bengals or Ravens to win the division at 7-10.
If that happened, the AFC North winner could become just the third seven-win team ever to win their division.
If the scenario above doesn’t happen, there’s also a chance that an 8-9 team could win the division. It won’t be easy, but here’s the most plausible scenario that would end with the Ravens winning the division at 8-9.
- Ravens go 2-2 over final four games: at Bengals (Win), vs. Patriots (Loss), at Packers (Loss), at Steelers (Win)
- Steelers go 1-3 over final four games: vs. Dolphins (Win), at Lions (Loss), at Browns (Loss), vs. Ravens (Loss)
Breakdown: In this scenario, Baltimore’s two wins would HAVE to come against the Bengals and Steelers. The reason the Ravens need to win those two games is because it would set them up to win the divisional record tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. In that situation, the Ravens would finish with a 4-2 division record, which would give them the tiebreaker over the Steelers, who would be 3-3. This means the Ravens would need some help from Browns, because this scenario only works if Cleveland beats Pittsburgh.
Now, let’s move on to the Bengals. Here’s how Cincinnati could win the division at 8-9:
- Bengals go 4-0 over final four games: vs. Ravens (Win), at Dolphins (Win), vs. Cardinals (Win), vs. Browns (Win)
- Steelers go 1-3 over final four games: vs. Dolphins (Loss), at Lions (Loss), at Browns (Win), vs. Ravens (Loss)
Breakdown: Like the Ravens, the Bengals would need the Steelers to go 1-3, but the upside for the Bengals is that it doesn’t matter which game the Steelers win, so we’ll give them a win over the Browns. In this scenario, the Bengals would win the divisional record tiebreaker by going 5-1 in the AFC North, which would top the Steelers’ 4-2 record.
The Ravens only have a 23.9% chance of winning the division and the Bengals are even lower at 2.9%, but there’s still a chance, so please cue the Lloyd Christmas meme.
The Steelers are in control of the AFC North right now, but with four weeks to play, anything can still happen. This has been one of the most unpredictable seasons in NFL history, so it would be almost fitting to get an unpredictable ending like the Ravens or Bengals taking home the AFC North crown with a losing record.
