Three credit rating agencies have issued unfavorable outlooks for higher education in 2026.
Fitch Ratings issued the latest outlook on Thursday, declaring that it anticipates a “deteriorating credit environment for U.S. Public Finance Higher Education in 2026 relative to 2025.” That outlook is based on various pressures, including concerns about declining enrollment, new limits on federal loan programs and obstacles for international students seeking to study in the U.S.
The organization noted state funding is “vulnerable” due to an “uncertain policy trajectory” that will “generally shift more costs previously borne by the federal government on to the states.”
The rating agency also noted public concerns about “the value proposition of a higher education degree” amid declining job-placement rates and rising concerns about affordability. Fitch anticipates limited revenue growth for colleges as they grapple with those challenges and projected consolidation across the sector, from mergers and closures to restructuring and more.
S&P Global Ratings also issued a negative sector outlook on Tuesday. That analysis cited some of the same concerns raised in the Fitch report. S&P Global warned of “intense competition for students” and rising operating costs for the sector in the year ahead.
“Our sector view is negative, as we expect colleges and universities will struggle to navigate through mounting operating pressures and uncertainty that will require budgetary and programmatic adjustments,” officials at S&P Global Ratings noted on their website.
Moody’s Ratings was the first to issue a sector outlook last month, deeming it negative for many of the same reasons cited by other agencies in their 2026 assessments for higher ed.
