Andy Burnham, Ed Miliband, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting would all win a head-to-head leadership contest against Keir Starmer, according to a poll of Labour members.
Research conducted by Survation for LabourList found that Burnham and Rayner would defeat the prime minister by considerable margins, while Streeting and Miliband would have a slight advantage but within the margin of error.
The poll also found 54% of members said there should be a new Labour leader in place before the next general election. And 41% of those who backed Starmer for the leadership in 2020 said a new leader should be in place, with 40% wanting him to stay.
Poll results showing how Labour members would vote in head-to-head contests between Keir Starmer and potential leadership rivals
The poll exposed a rift among those who backed either candidate in the recent deputy leadership contest, with 69% of those who supported Lucy Powell calling for a new leader by the next election while 51% of Bridget Phillipson supporters want Starmer to remain as leader.
Emma Burnell, the editor of LabourList, said: “Starmer’s team have made it clear that he would contest a leadership contest were one to arise. Of course, that was a week ago and we all know that’s a long time in politics.
“It may well be that if it came to it Starmer would decide a contest in which he ran – and was possibly defeated – was too damaging to the party in the long term.”
Should Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, take part in a leadership contest, he would defeat Starmer with the largest margin of any potential challenger – 26 percentage points, the research found. Burnham would need to return to Westminster as a Labour MP in order to be able to challenge for the party leadership.
Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, would also defeat Starmer by a 19-point margin, polling 52% compared with 33% for the prime minister. Last weekend, allies of Rayner said she would seek to renew her public profile in the coming months and would be likely to run in a future leadership contest.
Streeting, the health secretary, would edge out Starmer by 33% to 31% but the result is within the margin of error and is effectively a dead heat.
Both candidates would also have to win over the 36% of members who said they would be unsure who to back in such a contest. Earlier this month, Streeting denied leading a plot to overthrow the prime minister and called for those briefing against him to be sacked.
Miliband, Labour leader from 2010 until his resignation in 2015, would lead Starmer by four points should a leadership contest take place, the poll found.
Burnell added: “The two leading contenders to Starmer both face significant challenges. Rayner because it may be that not enough time has passed since she, very unfortunately, had to step down.
“Burnham because he faces several hurdles to being able to run. If things move quickly, he may not be able to return to parliament in time to be a candidate. This might give Starmer and his team hope. If there is no obvious candidate that can beat him, he will feel much more secure in place.”
