After more than 100 years, Copenhagen no longer has a Social Democrat mayor. Sisse Marie Welling, the new lord mayor, represents neither the mainstream right nor the far right but the Green Left (Socialistisk Folkeparti, known as SF). This should be a major wake-up call for centre-left parties across Europe. After more than a decade taking the wrong lessons from Denmark, it is finally time to learn the right lesson: copying the far right not only fails to turn on far-right voters, it also turns off progressive voters.
The 21st century has so far seen two simultaneous electoral developments in western Europe: the decline of social-democratic parties and the rise of far-right parties. This has created the powerful narrative that social democrats are losing votes to the far right, in particular because of their (alleged) “pro-immigration” positions. And although research shows that their voters mainly moved to centre-right and green parties, social-democratic parties have been chasing this mythical “left behind” voter ever since.
Research by social scientists overwhelmingly shows that adopting far-right positions leads neither to electoral success for centrist parties nor to electoral defeat for far-right parties. But this has not stopped centre-left advisers, politicians and strategists. Whenever my colleagues and I refer to this research, someone will point to the alleged success of the “Danish model”. The lure is so great that even as polls were predicting the loss of Copenhagen, Britain’s Labour government ignored internal opposition and introduced a number of policies designed to emulate Denmark’s extremely stringent asylum rules.
To be clear, the Danish model has never worked. Although the nativist turn predates the current Social Democrat party leader, Mette Frederiksen made it her signature policy, not just as prime minister of Denmark but also during the Danish presidency of the EU. Her victory in 2019’s general election did not represent a great electoral surge: the party lost 0.4% of the vote but, because of specific bloc politics, regained the premiership. In 2022, her party did make small electoral gains (1.6%) but only remained in office by governing with the mainstream right. Currently, the party polls just above 20%, and is expected to reach a historic low result in next year’s legislative election.
At the same time, the far right has not been defeated. The main far-right party, the Danish People’s party (DPP), which was already on a downward trend before the ascent of Frederiksen, saw a modest comeback in this week’s local elections. At the same time, new far-right parties, such as the New Right (NB) and the Denmark Democrats (DD) have emerged. Today, the DPP and DD together poll close to the record high of the DPP in 2015.
Other social democrats should learn the right lessons this time. Opportunistic and often half-hearted anti-immigrant policies will not win over far-right voters. Moreover, their nativist turn will push away progressive voters, particularly younger ones, who want a party that is socioeconomically and socioculturally leftwing. This is particularly visible in Britain, where Keir Starmer’s desperate attempts to win over Reform UK voters is failing miserably, as Labour haemorrhages support to the Greens and Lib Dems.
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Obviously, Copenhagen is not Denmark, let alone (western) Europe, but it is representative of the more multicultural and progressive cities that have become the last remaining strongholds of social-democratic parties in Europe. Rather than cherish these cities and voters, the centre left has taken them for granted; even worse – again copying the far right – some of their politicians have insulted them, for instance as “woke warriors”.
This has led to the rise of green and new-left parties, such as SF and Unity List in Copenhagen, and even a return of reformed communists, as in Austria’s second city, Graz. What sets these progressive competitors apart from the Social Democrats is not just their more outspoken leftwing agendas, but also the age of their electorate. Whereas social-democratic parties have some of the oldest electorates and their membership is often literally dying off, their left competitors are particularly popular among young voters, including many with a minority background.
In short, social-democratic parties should stop chasing after far-right voters. This strategy is not just unsuccessful in the short run; by failing to win over these voters, it leads to the loss of progressive voters and prevents the rejuvenation of their ageing electorate in the future. To remain relevant, they must promote an outspoken progressive agenda, both in terms of cultural and economic issues. If they don’t, they will lose their last remaining political strongholds and their potential future electorate. That is the real lesson from the failed Danish model.
