The International Energy Agency, the world’s chief forecaster of future energy use, continues to project that global demand for fossil fuels will peak before the end of this decade, if countries push forward on their climate goals. However, it foresees greater overall use of fossil fuels than it did last year, as the world sees rising power demand from data centers and air conditioners.
Clean energy will see rapid growth over the next decade, with wind generation more than doubling and solar growing more than fourfold by 2035, the IEA projects in its latest World Energy Outlook. The forecast, based on climate policies that have been either proposed or enacted globally, suggests that renewables will more than meet rising demand.
Analysts say that coal is now at or near its peak, while oil use will crest around 2030 and gas will top out before 2035. While overall fossil fuel use is still set to peak in the next few years, the IEA sees greater use of these energy sources as compared to last year. It now projects gas will crest at a higher level, and oil will decline more slowly after reaching its peak.
The IEA also modeled a scenario where countries take the drastic action needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C and — following pressure from the U.S. and other oil exporters — a scenario where governments take no further action on climate, and clean tech firms face major constraints, such as a lack of financing or infrastructure. The latter scenario, which sees demand for oil and gas rising through midcentury, has drawn criticism from some analysts for being overly pessimistic about the growth of clean energy.
“Fossil fuel importing countries are still reeling from the energy crisis and are seeking to cut their dependence on expensive and insecure fossil fuels,” said Dave Jones, chief analyst at energy think tank Ember. “Renewables and electrification will dominate the future — and fossil-importing nations will gain the most by embracing them.”
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