For months, Israel has threatened another military escalation against Lebanon, claiming it would be a punishment for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) not moving quickly enough to disarm Hezbollah.
But analysts told Al Jazeera that Lebanon’s government and army have undertaken to disarm the group, which has fought Israel several times since the 1980s, most recently from September to November 2024.
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While there is more to be done on the Lebanese side, it requires international support and a key missing ingredient: Israel’s cooperation.
“There are daily violations of the ceasefire by Israel in Lebanon, and it would be unfair at this stage to pin the blame on the Lebanese government,” Lebanese political analyst Karim Emile Bitar told Al Jazeera.
“The Lebanese government went above and beyond what was required … and took a historic decision to ask the Lebanese Army to disarm Hezbollah,” he said.
The Israelis have not held up their side of the bargain, Bitar said, as was made clear during US special envoy Tom Barrack’s visit to Israel.
“Barrack clearly acknowledged that he could not get … [Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu to acknowledge that Lebanon had started implementing this ambitious and long-awaited initiative, and he was unable to extract any concessions that Israel would withdraw from the five [Lebanese] hilltops it continues to occupy.”
A long controversy
Hezbollah, a Lebanese group that formed during the Lebanese civil war (1975 – 1990) to oppose Israeli occupation, has been the strongest political and military actor in Lebanon in the post-civil war period.
But Hezbollah’s weapons have long been controversial in Lebanon, with many critics welcoming the government decision in August to bring them under state control, made despite Israel’s ongoing attacks and ceasefire violations.
Israel killed more than 4,000 people in its war on Lebanon, mostly civilians, and displaced more than a million people. It razed dozens of villages to the ground and invaded, and still refuses to withdraw from at least five points on Lebanese territory.
The ostensible ceasefire that was reached on November 27, 2024, has not stopped Israel from striking Lebanon almost daily, killing more than 100 civilians and preventing thousands of displaced people from returning to their villages in the south.
Shepherds and farmers have been killed while tending to their animals and land, while efforts at reconstruction have also come under Israeli attack. Hezbollah has only responded to Israeli attacks once.
The group and its supporters and allies – including cabinet ministers – responded angrily to the government.
“There is no state or government in the world that confronts the resistance in its own territory while the enemy is still there occupying the land and carrying out aggressions against Lebanon daily,” Hezbollah Political Council Deputy Chief Mahmoud Komati told Al Jazeera Mubasher in August.
In the past, Hezbollah could have collapsed a government for such a decision, but it does not have the same political sway it held before last year’s war.
It is weakened after Israel’s war on Lebanon killed a swath of its leadership, destroyed much of its military infrastructure, and cut off its smuggling routes from Iran, the group’s main benefactor. The fall of its key ally, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, in December added to its woes.
‘Israel hellbent on attacking Lebanon’
Israel’s attacks continue despite the LAF’s disarmament efforts. In fact, during a cabinet meeting on November 6, LAF Commander Rodolph Haykal proposed suspending disarmament efforts if the attacks continue, citing how badly they disrupt the army’s efforts.
“Israeli maximalism today provides fodder to the arguments of Hezbollah hardliners who argue that whatever concessions Lebanon makes, Israel is hellbent on continuing its attacks on Lebanon because it has territorial ambitions,” Bitar said, adding that international actors like France, the Vatican – with the Pope visiting Lebanon soon, and Saudi Arabia could apply needed pressure on Israel.
The government will need “more international support and far more structural power to make disarmament work,” Karim Safieddine, a Lebanese political writer and doctoral student in sociology at Pittsburgh University, told Al Jazeera.
“The domestic arena is a bit paralysed,” he added.
In a televised speech on November 11, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said the Lebanese government was giving in to pressure from the Israelis and the US without any concessions in return.
“Today, the matter is no longer merely about weapons; it has become a pretext for targeting capabilities and funds, and afterwards, they will claim the problem lies in the very existence of the Resistance – such pretexts will never end,” Qassem said in his speech.
He added that Israel’s northern settlements along the Lebanese border are not under threat from Hezbollah. Thousands of Israelis were evacuated from their homes in the north due to Hezbollah attacks, but those attacks stopped with the ceasefire last November.
Will there be war?
Reports in Israeli and Lebanese media suggest Israel may launch a wider war, similar to last year’s. US envoy Barrack has also warned Lebanon that Israel may choose to attack if Hezbollah does not disarm.
But analysts are sceptical, saying a variety of issues, including a lack of attainable goals and military fatigue from the prolonged war on Gaza, may deter such a war, even if Netanyahu wants one.
“There are no more real targets; they’ve hit the ones they have,” Lebanese political analyst Rabih Dandachli told Al Jazeera.
“They hit the entire leadership, they stopped the main smuggling, they’re working on [Hezbollah’s] financing with the Americans, so if there is war, it is costly and useless.”
Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst believed to be close to Hezbollah, said, “Israel is exploiting the issue of disarmament to justify aggression.”
When asked if Hezbollah may respond to Israeli attacks, Kassir said: “Anything is possible. Sheikh Naim Qassem says … everything has its limits in the face of Israeli aggression.”
However, there are also domestic political considerations in Israel that could dictate whether another war is on the cards, analysts said.
Bitar pointed out that attacking Iran’s allies in the region, including Hezbollah, is politically popular in Israel and that legislative elections are approaching in 2026.
“The current intensification of Israeli strikes is a willingness on the part of Israel to continue in this headlong rush to continue the war,” Bitar said.
