Hurricane Melissa tore through Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba this week as one of the most powerful Atlantic storms on record. A new analysis finds that warming made the cyclone four times as likely to hit today as in preindustrial times.
Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, with winds up to 185 miles per hour. The storm has killed at least 49 people across the Caribbean and uprooted thousands more, while inflicting around $50 billion in damage, according to one estimate.
Warmer ocean waters allow hurricanes to spin up faster and raise the speed limit for cyclone winds. According to the new analysis, from Imperial College London, warming increased wind speeds for Melissa by 7 percent, which in turn allowed the storm to inflict 12 percent more damage.
A separate analysis from Climate Central finds that warming made the unusually balmy Atlantic waters far more likely. Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central, said, “warming is making all of Melissa’s dangers worse: driving heavier rainfall, more damaging wind speeds, and higher storm surge along the coast.”
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