Let me tell you a story. It’s not about kings or dragons or battles in a galaxy far, far away — it’s about Oscar contenders, given a golden pathway, only to find too many people crowding the road, making it nearly impossible to reach the end of the yellow brick trail.
There’s a particular kind of Oscar-season tragedy that has nothing to do with surprise snubs. It unfolds quietly, almost mathematically — like a game of musical chairs where the music never stops, but the seats still somehow vanish. In this season’s best supporting actress race, we’re watching that story unfold in real time.
This awards season has brought a glut of riches. Several presumed best picture contenders arrive not with one, but multiple standout supporting performances. It’s a filmmaker’s dream — and an actor’s dilemma. When too many brilliant performances share the same ballot line, excellence becomes its own worst enemy. That’s particularly true this year with top-tier contenders such as “One Battle After Another,” “Sentimental Value” and “Marty Supreme,” with others hovering just behind them.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” has turned both Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor into critical sensations — Hall with her seasoned restraint and sublimated grief, and Taylor with raw, electric volatility. Either could mount a serious Oscar campaign. Neither may survive having to split the vote.
Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” faces the same predicament. Elle Fanning, long overdue for Academy recognition, delivers what many consider her finest work yet — measured, devastating, revelatory. But Norwegian actress Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, in a quieter register, commands equal attention from international critics. Trier has coaxed career-defining performances from both his stars. Ironically, that achievement may be his undoing.
Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme” pits Odessa A’zion’s breakout ferocity against Gwyneth Paltrow’s scene-stealing “comeback turn” — exactly the kind of narrative Oscar voters have historically devoured. But which one gets enough momentum to carry through?
Here’s the truth. We’ve seen this before.
Elijah Wood, left, Andy Serkis and Sean Astin in “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
©New Line Cinema/Courtesy Everett Collection
In the 2003 Oscar season, before the eventual best picture nominees were locked in, a deep bench of standout supporting performances emerged — and most were left out.
In the eventual best picture winner “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” Sean Astin was the mainstream favorite, riding a wave of emotion and goodwill for his portrayal of Samwise Gamgee. But speculation also swirled around Ian McKellen, previously nominated for “The Fellowship of the Ring,” and Viggo Mortensen, whose portrayal of Aragorn had become one of the trilogy’s most beloved elements. (Let’s not forget those banging the drum for Andy Serkis’ motion-capture brilliance as Gollum.) In the end, none of them were nominated — despite the film sweeping 11 Oscars.
A similar story unfolded with Clint Eastwood’s “Mystic River,” widely believed to be the runner-up in best picture. Tim Robbins won best supporting actor, but many assumed co-star Kevin Bacon would finally land his first nomination. Only one made it onto the ballot.
“Seabiscuit,” meanwhile, entered the race with a sprawling, critically respected ensemble. William H. Macy scored a Golden Globe nomination, Chris Cooper was recognized by SAG, and Jeff Bridges was seen as a potential spoiler on nomination morning. None were named on the day.
The pattern is clear — when multiple contenders come from the same film, votes split. A little support for everyone often results in not enough support for anyone.
Consider the 1994 film year, when both supporting acting categories flirted with the possibility of double-dipping.
“Forrest Gump” co-stars Sally Field and Robin Wright were thought to be locks for supporting actress recognition, especially with the film dominating the box office and major precursor awards. Neither made the cut. Instead, Jennifer Tilly earned a surprise nod for “Bullets Over Broadway,” joining eventual winner Dianne Wiest — from a film that didn’t even receive a best picture nomination.
The supporting actor race that same year was similarly chaotic. Pundits predicted double nominees from “Pulp Fiction” — Samuel L. Jackson and possibly Indie Spirit nominee Eric Stoltz — or from “Quiz Show,” with John Turturro (a Golden Globe and SAG nominee) and Paul Scofield. Jackson landed his deserved nomination; Turturro was famously left out in favor of Scofield in what became an infamous “cast member switcharoo.”
More recently, many believed that both “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “The Fabelmans” would dominate the 2023 supporting actor race. Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan ultimately made it in for “Banshees.” Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch, despite significant recognition, couldn’t both find room. Only one film went two for two — and it wasn’t “The Fabelmans.”
It’s a quirk of the Academy’s voting system. In supporting categories, passion matters more than consensus. A No. 1 vote on a nominator’s ballot carries significantly more weight than being everyone’s second or third choice. When votes split between co-stars — especially in a deep field like this year’s — it opens the door for a single breakout performer from another film to sweep in and claim a nomination (or even the win).
So where does that leave us today? And how do the campaigns keep their supporting ladies afloat?
There’s no surefire blueprint, and it’s not always tied to what wins best picture.
Celeste Holm, left, Loretta Young and Elsa Lanchester in “Come to the Stable”
©20thCentFox/Courtesy Everett Collection
There has been only one instance in Oscar history when two films each claimed two nominations in the same acting category: 1949’s “Come to the Stable” (Celeste Holm and Elsa Lanchester) and “Pinky” (Ethel Barrymore and Ethel Waters). All four lost to Mercedes McCambridge from best picture winner “All the King’s Men.”
Fun fact: Holm holds the record for being nominated alongside a co-star in three separate films — “Gentleman’s Agreement,” “Come to the Stable” and “All About Eve.” She’s followed by Anne Revere (“The Song of Bernadette,” “Gentleman’s Agreement”), Amy Adams (“Doubt,” “The Fighter”) and Teresa Wright (“The Little Foxes,” “Mrs. Miniver”) with two co-nominations apiece.
According to Variety’s most recent predictions, “One Battle After Another” could attempt something audacious: placing two actors in two supporting categories. Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn in supporting actor; Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor in supporting actress. If that happens, it’ll join extremely rare company.
Only four films in history have double-dipped in two acting categories:
- “All About Eve” (1950): Anne Baxter and Bette Davis in best actress; Celeste Holm and Thelma Ritter in supporting actress.
- “Peyton Place” (1957): Arthur Kennedy and Russ Tamblyn in supporting actor; Hope Lange and Diane Varsi in supporting actress.
- “The Last Picture Show” (1971): Jeff Bridges and winner Ben Johnson in supporting actor; Ellen Burstyn and winner Cloris Leachman in supporting actress.
- “Terms of Endearment” (1983): Winner Shirley MacLaine and Debra Winger in actress; John Lithgow and winner Jack Nicholson in supporting actor.
With “Sentimental Value,” you have two actors from a non-English language film — Fanning and Lilleaas (though Fanning primarily speaks English in the role). Representing Norway in the international feature race, the film could make history. No international feature film has ever landed two supporting actress nominations in the same year. Also notable: Only one supporting actor or actress from an international feature has ever won — Zoë Saldaña, just last year, in “Emilia Pérez.”
Then there’s the buzzy late-season player, “Marty Supreme.” Oscar winner Paltrow seeks her second career nomination, 27 years after “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), and newcomer A’zion has emerged as one of the film’s most vibrant and memorable highlights. While no major precedent is at stake, it will be fascinating to see how this high-octane sports dramedy fares — especially with Timothée Chalamet now a frontrunner in best actor after the surprise NYFF screening and acclaim out of L.A..
We should mention the handful of dark horses with some semblance of multiple buzzy supporting actress turns in the mix such as “Sinners” (Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku), “Wake Up Dead Man” (Glenn Close and Kerry Washington), “Wicked: For Good” (Ariana Grande and Michelle Yeoh) and “Train Dreams” (Kerry Condon and Felicity Jones).
One last thing I noticed in this latest round of prediction updates: only nine films are currently represented across the four acting categories — which would be the lowest tally since 1968. The lowest of all time is eight films in 1981. The record for the most movies ever represented was in 2007 with a staggering 18 films (“Michael Clayton” was the only movie that scored more than one acting nom).
So, either some of our current predictions are way off (which is surely the case when assessing the race in October) — with under-the-radar contenders still waiting to emerge — or we’re headed for an unexpectedly “small” year, with some of the fewest individual films represented across the acting categories (and perhaps the artisans as well). That would track with current projections, which have four movies expected to crack double digits in total nominations on Oscar morning.
This week’s updated Oscar predictions are below.
“Wicked: For Good”
©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24) ***
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features) — Craig Brewer
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Casting
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Susanne Scheel
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Production Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Cinematography
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Film Editing
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Original Score
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
Original Song
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“The Girl in the Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Zoo” from “Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (U.S. Distributor TBD)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Sinners” (12); “Hamnet” and “Wicked: For Good” (10); “Marty Supreme” (8); “Sentimental Value” (7)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (28); Netflix (17); Focus Features (16); Neon (13); Universal Pictures (10); A24 (9)
