Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
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“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
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Matchups highlight: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Indianapolis Colts). He’s a more prominent part of the Chargers’ offense this season than last, attempting a pass on 57% of his snaps played (up from 51%), and the injury to Omarion Hampton (ankle) should continue to buoy that rate. Herbert will be plenty involved in a game projected to be among the week’s highest-scoring (48.5 over/under), against a Colts defense that has struggled to contain upper-tier quarterbacks. Bo Nix (20.24 fantasy points in Week 2), Matthew Stafford (27.40, Week 4) and Jacoby Brissett (20.70, Week 6) all scored in excess of 20 points against this defense.
Others to like: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. New Orleans Saints); Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday); Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Detroit Lions).
Matchup to avoid: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (at Minnesota Vikings). As the No. 4 QB in fantasy scoring for the season and one of the league’s best running QBs, he’s a tough player to bench regardless of matchup. However, the bye-week-rested Vikings represent one of his most challenging opponents this season, meaning you should temper your expectations. The Vikings have afforded quarterbacks the seventh-fewest yards per passing attempt (0.37), and since Hurts generates a decent chunk of his fantasy production via the tush push (19% of his points since the beginning of 2023 have come on runs from the 1-yard line), be forewarned that the Vikings have afforded touchdowns on only 31% of rushing attempts within three yards of the goal line, the third-best rate in the league.
DEF to
avoidOpp.RkAdj.
FPA DEF to
exploitOpp.RkAdj.
FPA@SEA
1
-6.9 WSH
32
7.9@SF
2
-6.4 @DAL
31
4.1NYG
3
-5.0 @LAC
30
3.3IND
4
-3.7 PIT
29
2.7LV
5
-3.2 @ARI
28
2.6BYE
6
-3.2 TB
27
2.5PHI
7
-3.0 @CHI
26
2.5@DEN
8
-2.8 @CLE
25
2.4@KC
9
-1.8 LAR
24
2.2NE
10
-1.4 NO
23
1.9CAR
11
-1.2 ATL
22
1.5@JAX
12
-1.0 BYE
21
1.3@TEN
13
-0.7 GB
20
1.1@DET
14
-0.5 @CIN
19
0.7MIA
15
-0.4 @NYJ
18
0.4@MIN
16
-0.2 HOU
17
0.3
Running backs
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Matchups highlight: Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns (vs. Miami Dolphins). Judkins has been surprisingly productive for a player whose team has run 77% of its plays on offense while trailing on the scoreboard (the league’s fourth-highest rate), and one who missed training camp and Week 1 of the regular season. He has 101 rushing yards more than expected (fifth at the position), per Next Gen Stats, 344 yards after contact (sixth) and eight explosive runs (22nd), and ranks 20th in fantasy points per game (13.1). Now, for the first time all season, Judkins’ Browns play as the favorites (giving 2.5 points), meaning a potentially expansive opportunity for him against a defense that has surrendered a 20-point performance to an individual running back in four of the past five weeks.
Others to like: Jaylen Warren, Steelers (at Bengals, Thursday); Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders (at Dallas Cowboys); Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (at Tennessee Titans).
Matchup to avoid: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs. Carolina Panthers). He and his teammates are returning from London, where they had an utterly miserable offensive effort in which he scored 5.9 fantasy points on 22 touches and the Jets as a team totaled nine points and 82 yards on offense against the Denver Broncos. While the Panthers lack the Broncos’ reputation as defensive stalwarts, they’ve played much better defense than they’re given credit for. The Panthers’ defense ranks 13 spots higher against running backs (fifth) than the Broncos’ (18th). The Panthers also limited the No. 4 (De’Von Achane) and No. 5 (Javonte Williams) RBs to a combined 25.0 points in hard-fought victories the past two weeks.
DEF to
avoidOpp.RkAdj.
FPA DEF to
exploitOpp.RkAdj.
FPAMIA
1
-8.7 PIT
32
9.0@SF
2
-6.3 @CLE
31
7.8@NYJ
3
-5.0 WSH
30
7.7@JAX
4
-3.7 BYE
29
7.5@TEN
5
-3.5 NE
28
6.3@ARI
6
-3.4 NO
27
3.4@CHI
7
-3.3 @MIN
26
2.9CAR
8
-3.1 @KC
25
2.8HOU
9
-2.2 BYE
24
2.8@CIN
10
-2.1 @DEN
23
2.1@LAC
11
-1.2 IND
22
1.7LAR
12
-0.7 ATL
21
1.6@SEA
13
-0.7 GB
20
1.4TB
14
-0.4 PHI
19
1.1LV
15
0.2 @DAL
18
0.4@DET
16
0.4 NYG
17
0.4
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Deebo Samuel, Commanders (at Cowboys). It’s not often that you see a defense with an Adjusted FPA number as deep into double-digits as the Cowboys have against wide receivers (17.8), but here we are. In six games, the Cowboys have seen seven different wideouts score 15-plus fantasy points against them, and a league-leading three of those scored 25-plus (Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson in Week 2, Romeo Doubs in Week 4). Additionally, in three of their six games, the Cowboys surrendered a double-digit fantasy score to two different wide receivers, which will be important in Samuel’s example in the event Terry McLaurin (quadriceps) is able to return.
Others to like: Ladd McConkey, Chargers (vs. Colts); Mike Evans, Buccaneers (at Lions); Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Los Angeles Rams).
Matchup to avoid: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (at New York Jets). Bryce Young’s early-season struggles have held McMillan back from a breakthrough thus far, and while the rookie’s usage metrics show promise — he has a 25% target share and seven red zone targets — he’s not yet at a point where he can be termed matchups-proof. This is one of his tougher ones on the 2025 schedule, as the Jets have seen a relatively low number of pass attempts (28.3 per game, sixth fewest) and have allowed only two opposing wide receivers to score at least 15 fantasy points against them (Calvin Austin III in Week 1, Ryan Flournoy in Week 5).
DEF to
avoidOpp.RkAdj.
FPA DEF to
exploitOpp.RkAdj.
FPAPHI
1
-10.5 WSH
32
17.8@SEA
2
-8.9 @LAC
31
9.3CAR
3
-8.6 MIA
30
5.4@SF
4
-8.0 HOU
29
5.3IND
5
-7.6 TB
28
5.1LV
6
-7.0 LAR
27
4.5@NYJ
7
-4.5 @JAX
26
4.1@MIN
8
-4.2 @CIN
25
3.3NYG
9
-4.1 @CHI
24
3.2@CLE
10
-2.6 @DEN
23
3.0BYE
11
-1.2 @ARI
22
2.8ATL
12
-1.0 @DET
21
2.6NE
13
-0.2 GB
20
2.2PIT
14
0.9 @TEN
19
2.0NO
15
1.0 @DAL
18
1.7@KC
16
1.3 BYE
17
1.5
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Mason Taylor, Jets (vs. Panthers). Tight end has been a difficult position to fill, as only four of the preseason’s top-10 positional picks on average find themselves top 10 in scoring, while 13 of the 35 instances of a 15-point performance by a tight end thus far came from players available in more than half of ESPN leagues. In short, matchups have been the way to go at the position, and Taylor has one of this week’s best. The Panthers have afforded tight ends a league-most 2.45 fantasy points per target, and they’re the only team to have seen an individual tight end score at least 7.9 points against them in all six weeks.
Matchup to avoid: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings (vs. Eagles). The Eagles, conversely, have held tight ends to the fewest fantasy points per target (1.15). It’s not the first time they’ve shown excellence defending the position, either, as they finished 2024 fourth best in that department (1.49) and third best in Adjusted Fantasy Points Added (minus-2.6). Hockenson’s 16.9% target share is 15th among tight ends, a modest workload that makes him a shaky fantasy start.
DEF to
avoidOpp.RkAdj.
FPA DEF to
exploitOpp.RkAdj.
FPA@SF
1
-7.1 @CIN
32
5.3BYE
2
-5.6 ATL
31
3.6LV
3
-4.5 PIT
30
3.6NYG
4
-3.9 @ARI
29
3.5@MIN
5
-3.1 @NYJ
28
3.0IND
6
-2.9 CAR
27
2.8NE
7
-1.5 @LAC
26
2.5@SEA
8
-1.2 @DAL
25
2.4@TEN
9
-0.9 @CLE
24
2.3@DEN
10
-0.6 PHI
23
2.1@KC
11
-0.4 NO
22
2.0@JAX
12
-0.3 WSH
21
1.6MIA
13
0.1 GB
20
1.6BYE
14
0.1 @DET
19
1.5@CHI
15
0.3 HOU
18
1.1LAR
16
0.7 TB
17
0.8
