Viewed through the Westminster prism, UK electoral politics seems a five-party contest. The narrative has been well aired in the conference season. The three established parties – Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – are each battling to peg back the Reform UK surge, with the Greens hovering in the wings. In Scotland and Wales, however, there are different pictures that the Westminster prism does not see. In both countries, the UK parties still fight their corners. Yet the main nationalist parties – the Scottish National party and Plaid Cymru – are reaping the benefit. In Scotland, the SNP has a clear polling lead, while in Wales, Plaid is head-to-head with Reform UK. Caught between the two, the established parties find themselves battling for survival.
With the nationalists holding their respective annual conferences this weekend, and crucial elections next spring to the devolved parliaments, observers across the UK need to be clear. Much of the political wind in 2026 will blow from the north and the west. Next year, both the SNP and Plaid Cymru could be government parties, a familiar role for the former, but a spectacular turnaround for the latter.
Plaid’s rise means its Swansea conference is a pivotal opportunity for the party under its leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth. Plaid owes its recent rise to many things, including a sluggish economy, UK Labour’s unpopularity, and Welsh Labour’s lacklustre record. A Senedd byelection on 23 October in Caerphilly, a seat Labour has never lost, will be a bellwether of the wider mood, and of Plaid’s appeal in the valleys.
You have to go back to 1918 to find an all-Wales election in which Labour did not come first. Labour has also won every time the Senedd has been contested, as it will be again in May. Yet, if the most recent Wales-wide poll holds good, that is set to change. Plaid will instead be the largest party, just ahead of Reform UK, with Labour third. Though still a minority, Plaid would be in government. In Welsh terms, that would be a political earthquake. Perhaps in Britain-wide terms too.
An SNP victory in May’s Holyrood contest would hardly be an earthquake, after 18 continuous years of nationalist government. It would, though, signal a remarkable comeback from a period of eclipse, and from an often dismal record on public services. For Labour, which did so well in Scotland in the 2024 general election, it would signal a crisis moment, imperilling Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
A fifth SNP term could put independence back on the agenda, too, with the party arguing that a separate Scotland is the best way to escape Nigel Farage. The SNP’s John Swinney published a new independence proposal this week. Although mainly aimed at the party’s debates in Aberdeen this weekend, events after May could give his ideas another lift. Support for independence is already on 47%. It might not take much more to tip the balance the SNP’s way.
Both nationalist parties scent victory. But the two movements march to the beat of different drums. Plaid has re-emerged as an as-yet untarnished centre-left alternative to Labour and the right. By contrast, the SNP is doing well in the polls in spite of its record. The Scottish Social Attitudes survey published this week found only 22% satisfied with the NHS, while trust in devolution is also down. Neither party looks set for majority government. As rival parties have also found, winning the support of unhappy voters may prove easier than putting the party visions into practice.
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