According to recent polls, almost 40% of Spanish men aged between 18 and 34 say that they plan to vote for Vox, the far-right party. Vox won its first seat in the Spanish parliament in 2019 and now it is surging again. Its recent success is no longer a story of just male voters, either: 20% of young women say they would vote for Vox, with the biggest increase among the youngest voters in that group.
It seems that the younger you are in Spain at the moment, the more likely you are to vote for a party that advocates, among other things, the mass expulsion of immigrants in order to preserve “Spanish identity”, the restriction of abortion, end-of-life and trans rights, the dismantling of the European Union’s institutions and the rejection of policies to tackle the climate crisis. Older generations continue to back the two largest parties, the centre-left Socialist party (PSOE) and the centre-right Popular party (PP). Women aged 60 and over make up the largest group rejecting the far right. Catalonia is the exception: support for the nationalist far right is spread across older generations, too.
Because of its 20th-century history, Spain had long appeared resistant to the recent rise of the populist right. That exceptionalism is no longer true, but how do we explain Vox’s growing appeal among a new generation of youngerSpanish voters? There are several contributory factors, but two particular crises, badly mishandled by the biggest parties, appear to have drained mainstream support: the deadly floods in Valencia last year and this summer’s wildfires in León, Zamora, Orense and Extremadura. Spain’s quasi-federal system makes it easy to assign blame both to the centre-left governing coalition in Madrid and to the conservative-led regional governments. At the same time, corruption and other scandals have once again tainted both main parties.
The last Spanish general election was in 2023 and the biggest concerns identified by Vox voters at the time were migration and “government and political parties”.
Data on the new young voters is limited, but polling shows that housing is the top concern for the population in general and even more so for anyone under 35. Wages, employment and the cost of living are mentioned too. Migration barely registers as an issue for younger voters. But the perception of politicians themselves as a problem, which was the other big issue for Vox voters in 2023, is widespread across generations. Marta Romero, a political scientist, says Vox has become fashionable among young people drawn to the “anti-establishment” image that the party is managing to project – just as parties on the left and the centre did in the previous decade.
Amid all the hand-wringing in Spain about the latest far-right insurgency, one thing is clear: the solution is not going to be found by moving the political centre of gravity rightward. Mimicking the far right on migration or women’s rights has demonstrably failed for parties across Europe – and it has already proven costly for the conservatives in Spain as well.
The Spanish economy stands out in Europe for its growth rate and is among the best performing in the west. But it’s still not delivering for many, particularly the younger adults who enter the labour market in cities such as Barcelona, Málaga or Madrid.
Focusing on – and delivering – affordable housing is the most important issue for younger people, who are poorer than older Spaniards mainly because of the high cost of renting or buying homes in the cities where jobs are concentrated. Wages are still low compared with other countries. In the past two decades, pensioners have become wealthier than young adults, particularly those with children, as El País’s data journalist Kiko Llaneras explained. Life is better in so many ways – Spain is richer, more modern, more inclusive and safer. But intergenerational tension is rising as the economy is not growing as fast as in the 1980s and 1990s.
What else can the mainstream political class do – particularly on the left, which traditionally counted on the support of progressive young adults? One obvious answer would be to challenge the prevailing political culture and stop bickering. Politicians, particularly from PSOE and PP, devote so much energy, day in day out, to insulting one another it is no wonder they attract widespread public cynicism, if not ridicule.
Most of the time this is just noise in the background as people get on with their lives. But a public backlash is palpable when this, often performative, conflict flares during or in response to a serious crisis. Yet it is now hard to find a politician from either of the two largest parties in national and regional government – those who bear the greatest responsibility – willing to pause before attacking a rival, even when the facts are still unclear.
In Valencia, there is a clearcut case the conservative regional government must answer. It is shocking that it remains in place a full year after mishandling emergency alerts during the floods. Central government is right to highlight the Valencia region’s leaders’ negligence and its neglect of the climate crisis, which is already reshaping Spain while Vox (and increasingly the PP) divert attention elsewhere. But is a public row required on every subject every day?
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This political culture may help to win elections in the short term, but it is proving a perilous way forward.
Socialist leaders often say not all politicians are equal, and that’s true. But it’s hard to persuade voters that there are clear policy differences when so many in prominent roles sound the same on people’s social media feeds.
Parties in Spain are notoriously hard to change. But we’ve seen it done before. Pedro Sánchez enacted change within his own party, and progressive new parties managed to break bipartisanship and (briefly) seemed poised to define the future. Hopeful change may not be easy now, but the alternative looks bleak.
