An estimated 1.4 million adults in Britain have a gambling problem, according to landmark figures released days after the chancellor hinted at plans to increase taxes on the £11.5bn betting and gaming industry.
The Gambling Commission’s annual survey found that 2.7% of adults scored 8 or above on the problem gambling severity index, a widely accepted measure analysing negative consequences of betting.
In previous years, the watchdog had warned against extrapolating that percentage to the general population. However, in a decision that puts the commission on a collision course with the sector it regulates, it has scrapped this advice after analysis of its methodology by a statistics expert.
That means the poll of more than 19,000 people can now be used to estimate the total number dealing with a gambling problem nationally – a figure of 1.4 million, or more than the population of Birmingham.
Data published by the commission also showed higher rates of problem gambling in deprived areas and in some types of gambling such as slot machines and, for the first time, in-play betting on sports.
The Gambling Commission’s assessment was published on Thursday, days after the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, indicated she planned to raise taxes on the sector in the autumn budget. She told an event at the Labour conference on Monday that there was a case for bookmakers and online casinos to be “paying more”.
Gordon Brown has called for an increase of up to £3bn in duties paid by gambling companies to pay for the lifting of the two-child benefit cap. The former prime minister’s plan echoes calls from thinktanks including the Social Market Foundation and the Institute for Public Policy Research. Industry sources expect taxes to rise, albeit by a smaller amount than sought by Brown.
The new estimate of the scale of the problem is likely to feed into the Treasury’s thinking about the economic benefits of an industry that pays billions in taxes and employs thousands of staff. Critics say gambling creates a drag on the economy through punters losing about £11.5bn a year.
The 2.7% figure comes from the commission’s second gambling survey of Great Britain (GSGB), which is now the regulator’s chosen gold standard. It replaced a previous polling format that produced a much lower 0.4% estimate.
The Betting & Gaming Council has repeatedly chosen to ignore the GSGB in favour of using the much lower figure from the older survey.
A spokesperson for the BGC said: “More than 22 million adults in Britain enjoy a bet each month and as the Gambling Commission today shows, the vast majority of people do so safely.
“Our members take player protections incredibly seriously and have voluntarily contributed £170m to research, education and treatment programmes over the past four years alone to tackle problem gambling – in stark contrast to the illegal growing black market where 1.5 million Brits staked up to £4.3bn and which actively targets vulnerable customers.”
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It said the difference between its preferred 0.4% figure and the regulator’s 2.7% “reflects different methodology”.
Andrew Rhodes, the chief executive of the Gambling Commission, said: “This year’s findings deepen our understanding of consequences from gambling and provide crucial insight into risk profiles among those who gamble most frequently. We strongly encourage operators to use this evidence to consider the risks within their own customer bases.”
The commission also published a report identifying so-called in-play sports betting – where customers can place wagers on minor aspects of a game in real time – as a particular problem.
Researchers at the University of Glasgow found that people who had made an in-play bet at least once a week over the past four weeks were three times more likely to score above 8 on the problem gambling scale.
The only products that scored more highly were high street slot machines. These have aroused increasing concern among politicians in recent months, leading to plans to give local authorities powers to stop new venues hosting them from opening.
