Companies, consumers, policymakers and investors across the US are “flying blind” at a crucial time for the world’s largest economy, a former top official has warned, after Friday’s closely-watched jobs report was not published as a result of the federal government shutdown.
The data for the release have already been collected, according to two former heads of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). But the Trump administration has so far defied calls to publish the report.
Employment growth has been slowing for months. Donald Trump fired the BLS commissioner in August, claiming without evidence that official data had been “faked”, as the labor market softened.
Erica Groshen, who served as BLS commissioner during the Obama administration, said: “Without today’s jobs report and next week’s scheduled inflation release (the data for which are already collected), the Federal Reserve, US treasury, financial markets, businesses and households will be flying blind.
“They will be less certain of current conditions at what may or may not be the beginning of a recession – precisely when their decisions are most consequential.”
Earlier this week William Beach, who led the BLS for four years under Trump and Joe Biden, also said the jobs data for September “have been completely collected and processed” by the BLS. “The jobs report is likely written in final draft,” he wrote.
According to a private jobs report from the payroll processing company ADP, US firms lost 32,000 jobs in the month of September, contrary to expectations from Wall Street of job growth of 45,000 for the month. ADP also revised its August job numbers from a growth of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs.
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Paul Schroeder, executive director of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics said: “The monthly jobs report is a key economic indicator which is particularly critical at this moment as economists are trying to get a handle on how much the US labor market has cooled. Since the release is delayed, a big piece of the labor market puzzle is missing.”
The Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren has called on the Trump administration to release the jobs report and upcoming inflation data despite the shutdown. “The jobs data scheduled to come out this Friday has undoubtedly been collected and the President must release it,” she said. “Without it, the Federal Reserve will not have the full picture it needs to make decisions this month about interest rates that will impact every family across the country.
“Donald Trump has the power to make sure the federal government can continue producing and releasing this critical information on Friday and beyond during his shutdown.”
Under the shutdown, the BLS’s contingency plan calls for furloughing all employees but the acting commissioner at the agency.
“In the event of a federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will suspend data collection, processing, and dissemination,” an agency spokesperson said in an email. “Once funding is restored, BLS will resume normal operations and notify the public of any changes to the news release schedule on the BLS release calendar.”
Trump’s nominee to lead the BLS, EJ Antoni, withdrew his nomination earlier this week after his selection drew bipartisan criticism over his lack of qualifications and consensus he was too partisan for the role.
